Date: 23/09/2014 15:35:21
From: dv
ID: 598637
Subject: Peak oil again

Been a while since we had a PO thread…

Oil production continues to grow strongly. Total oil supply is now 92.9 million barrels per day, of which OPEC makes up only 30.3 million. Non-OPEC oil supply is at all time record high levels, largely thanks to new fields in Canada, USA, Russia, China and Brazil.

Last year was the first year since 1997 that US oil production exceeded US oil imports. It is probable that by 2016, the US crude oil production will beat the “peak” it set in 1969.
Demand in the US is not rising quickly, and 2020 might be the last year that the US imports oil.

US Oil Production keeps rising

As a result, United States oil production climbed to the highest level since 1989, although it remains well below the record production of 9.6 million barrels a day, set in 1970.

The agency forecast that American production would continue to rise in 2014, adding 782,000 barrels, to 8.3 million barrels a day.

Oil market report

Non-OPEC supply

Reply Quote

Date: 23/09/2014 15:39:28
From: Cymek
ID: 598642
Subject: re: Peak oil again

dv said:


Been a while since we had a PO thread…

Oil production continues to grow strongly. Total oil supply is now 92.9 million barrels per day, of which OPEC makes up only 30.3 million. Non-OPEC oil supply is at all time record high levels, largely thanks to new fields in Canada, USA, Russia, China and Brazil.

Last year was the first year since 1997 that US oil production exceeded US oil imports. It is probable that by 2016, the US crude oil production will beat the “peak” it set in 1969.
Demand in the US is not rising quickly, and 2020 might be the last year that the US imports oil.

US Oil Production keeps rising

As a result, United States oil production climbed to the highest level since 1989, although it remains well below the record production of 9.6 million barrels a day, set in 1970.

The agency forecast that American production would continue to rise in 2014, adding 782,000 barrels, to 8.3 million barrels a day.

Oil market report

Non-OPEC supply

Imagine the profits the company that makes these barrels gets, I wonder how much a barrel to hold a barrel of oil costs?

Reply Quote

Date: 23/09/2014 15:45:19
From: morrie
ID: 598649
Subject: re: Peak oil again

Cymek said:


dv said:

Been a while since we had a PO thread…

Oil production continues to grow strongly. Total oil supply is now 92.9 million barrels per day, of which OPEC makes up only 30.3 million. Non-OPEC oil supply is at all time record high levels, largely thanks to new fields in Canada, USA, Russia, China and Brazil.

Last year was the first year since 1997 that US oil production exceeded US oil imports. It is probable that by 2016, the US crude oil production will beat the “peak” it set in 1969.
Demand in the US is not rising quickly, and 2020 might be the last year that the US imports oil.

US Oil Production keeps rising

As a result, United States oil production climbed to the highest level since 1989, although it remains well below the record production of 9.6 million barrels a day, set in 1970.

The agency forecast that American production would continue to rise in 2014, adding 782,000 barrels, to 8.3 million barrels a day.

Oil market report

Non-OPEC supply

Imagine the profits the company that makes these barrels gets, I wonder how much a barrel to hold a barrel of oil costs?


Nellie Bly went bankrupt making them.

Reply Quote

Date: 23/09/2014 15:58:24
From: dv
ID: 598666
Subject: re: Peak oil again

Meanwhile North Sea oil production continues its long term decline. Australia’s production never seems to waver much from 0.5 million barrels a day.

Reply Quote

Date: 23/09/2014 16:02:35
From: Peak Warming Man
ID: 598668
Subject: re: Peak oil again

Is bass strait still producing?

Reply Quote

Date: 23/09/2014 16:03:42
From: Bubblecar
ID: 598670
Subject: re: Peak oil again

dv said:


Meanwhile North Sea oil production continues its long term decline. Australia’s production never seems to waver much from 0.5 million barrels a day.

That’s more than adequate for my purposes.

Reply Quote

Date: 23/09/2014 16:10:29
From: Peak Warming Man
ID: 598671
Subject: re: Peak oil again

Just before the GFC oil prices peaked at $150 a barrel.

Reply Quote

Date: 23/09/2014 16:14:56
From: dv
ID: 598675
Subject: re: Peak oil again

Peak Warming Man said:


Just before the GFC oil prices peaked at $150 a barrel.

The way things are going, they might never get that high again.

Yes, Bass is still producing.

Reply Quote

Date: 24/09/2014 07:34:56
From: transition
ID: 598934
Subject: re: Peak oil again

Am I right in saying that humans are consuming near double their body weight in oil every day?

If you took the average weight of humans, all children and babies too.

Reply Quote

Date: 24/09/2014 07:41:11
From: Carmen_Sandiego
ID: 598936
Subject: re: Peak oil again

transition said:


Am I right in saying that humans are consuming near double their body weight in oil every day?

If you took the average weight of humans, all children and babies too.

How do you work that?

Reply Quote

Date: 24/09/2014 07:50:58
From: transition
ID: 598938
Subject: re: Peak oil again

if crude oil were ~125kg/barrel

yeah I did numbers wrong re number barrels per day

Reply Quote

Date: 24/09/2014 08:31:38
From: mollwollfumble
ID: 598943
Subject: re: Peak oil again


Oil production continues to grow strongly.

Is bass strait still producing?

There are ten or so locations in Australia still producing crude oil. See if I can list them. Cooper/Eromanga, Amadeus, Carnarvon, Perth (Cliff Head and Dongara), Gippsland, Surat/Bowen, Timor Gap and Timor Sea. Esso produced 9.3 million barrels of oil from Gippsland in 2013.

I’ve found an Excel file on the web listing Australian production of crude oil, condensate, LPG, LNG, “sales gas” whatever that is, and coal seam gas.

I’ll summarise total Australian crude oil production by year, in billions of barrels.
2013 68.5
2012 88.0
2011 95.5
2010 115
2009 94
2008 120
2007 122
2006 118
2005 124
2004 130
2003 155
2002 180
2001 191
2000 214
1999 149
1998 144
1997 159
1996 155
1995 153
1994 172
1993 159
1992 172
1991 178
1990 188
1989 159

1984 184

1979 164

1974 141

1969 15.8

From this you can see that the year 2000 was peak oil for Australia, and oil production has since dropped to a third of the peak. 2000 was also the last year in which the Australian oil supply matched the Australian demand for oil.

Reply Quote

Date: 24/09/2014 10:17:28
From: dv
ID: 598959
Subject: re: Peak oil again

transition said:


Am I right in saying that humans are consuming near double their body weight in oil every day?

If you took the average weight of humans, all children and babies too.

It might be something in that order.

Reply Quote

Date: 24/09/2014 11:53:32
From: mollwollfumble
ID: 599006
Subject: re: Peak oil again

Have now plotted the mining production data. Australia is way past peak oil, but has not yet reached peak gas.

Reply Quote

Date: 24/09/2014 13:31:34
From: transition
ID: 599063
Subject: re: Peak oil again

thought it’d look like 93000000(93 million barrels per day) divided by 7000000000(7 billion people on earth) = 0.01328571428571428571428571428571 x 125kg(weight of 1 barrel) = 1.6607142857142857142857142857138kg crude oil per person per day.

so if I the average body weight of humans including children was, say, 40kg (wild guess, probably is lower?), then that’d be equiv 4.1517857142857142857142857142845% of average human body weight in crude oil per person per day?

Reply Quote

Date: 24/09/2014 13:33:14
From: transition
ID: 599069
Subject: re: Peak oil again

dunno might have fucked that up there on the end

Reply Quote

Date: 24/09/2014 13:36:13
From: Peak Warming Man
ID: 599077
Subject: re: Peak oil again

transition said:


dunno might have fucked that up there on the end

Yeah, and possibly at the start too and a bit in the middle.
Apart from that it looks good.

Reply Quote

Date: 24/09/2014 13:38:00
From: transition
ID: 599081
Subject: re: Peak oil again

>Apart from that it looks good.

well you do the math, ‘cause I want to know per person on earth how much crude oil equiv of body mass we use, per day.

Reply Quote

Date: 24/09/2014 13:54:13
From: Peak Warming Man
ID: 599105
Subject: re: Peak oil again

People.

Six billion people at say 40kg = 240000000000kg

Oil

85,000,000 barrels a day at 140kg a barrel = 11900000000

So oil / people = 0.4958333 recurring.

So we use approximately half the average body mass of oil per person per day.

Reply Quote

Date: 24/09/2014 13:55:57
From: Cymek
ID: 599113
Subject: re: Peak oil again

Peak Warming Man said:


People.

Six billion people at say 40kg = 240000000000kg

Oil

85,000,000 barrels a day at 140kg a barrel = 11900000000

So oil / people = 0.4958333 recurring.

So we use approximately half the average body mass of oil per person per day.

Is that using or how much they process/make a day

Reply Quote

Date: 24/09/2014 13:57:34
From: Peak Warming Man
ID: 599115
Subject: re: Peak oil again

Cymek said:


Peak Warming Man said:

People.

Six billion people at say 40kg = 240000000000kg

Oil

85,000,000 barrels a day at 140kg a barrel = 11900000000

So oil / people = 0.4958333 recurring.

So we use approximately half the average body mass of oil per person per day.

Is that using or how much they process/make a day

Nope, how much crude oil is pumped a day.

Reply Quote

Date: 24/09/2014 14:03:03
From: transition
ID: 599122
Subject: re: Peak oil again

cheers for flipping the people and barrels around in the division

think you are right

Reply Quote

Date: 24/09/2014 14:48:28
From: transition
ID: 599169
Subject: re: Peak oil again

>Six billion people at say 40kg = 240000000000kg

just checking, does that above have an extra zero?

Reply Quote

Date: 24/09/2014 23:44:23
From: mollwollfumble
ID: 599596
Subject: re: Peak oil again

I think you’ll find that the whole news article revolves around the graph here

Crude oil production in the USA has been steadily declining since its peak in 1985, except for an unexpected increase in 2009 to 2012. The graph does not make it clear how much of this “crude oil” is mined crude and how much is natural gas condensate. The original figures need to be looked into in detail to see if the result is a fake generated by combining crude oil figures with figures for other sources of oil and/or gas.

Reply Quote

Date: 24/09/2014 23:46:27
From: dv
ID: 599598
Subject: re: Peak oil again

think you’ll find that the whole news article revolves around the graph here

—-

No, it doesn’t involve that graph.

But it does involve graphs going back to the 60s that I posted in the OP.

Reply Quote