Continuing on from the infamous ‘chat’ discussions of 11/07/2014 – and … http://tokyo3.org/forums/holiday/topics/4814/
.
.
Lets recap punters -

Peru said El Niño threat over, waters cooling and fish returning http://news.yahoo.com/peru-says-el-nino-threat-over-waters-cooling-232314417.html

And… El Nino master blaster Bob Tisdale said in his part 12 update –
For an El Niño to form, the ocean or atmospheric portions must both cooperate.
But, referring back to Figure 11, we’re definitely not seeing a comparative weakening of the trade winds this year, and there have been fewer
westerly wind bursts than there were in 1997. The additional westerly wind bursts and the continued weakening of the trade winds are what
drive additional warm water from the western tropical Pacific into the eastern equatorial Pacific, thus reinforcing the development of the El Niño.
Those are the additional feedbacks that are absent so far this year.

http://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2014/07/08/the-201415-el-nino-part-12-july-2014-update-the-feedbacks-need-to-kick-in-soon/
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Ever the sceptic, Mr PF had his say -

From: PermeateFree
ID: 558317
Subject: re: El Nino – Stumpy Seahorse

>>Climate models surveyed by the Bureau continue to indicate that El Niño is likely to develop by spring 2014
The Bureau’s ENSO Tracker remains at El Niño ALERT,
indicating at least a 70% chance of El Niño developing in 2014. <<
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

>>>It will be interesting to see whose predictions are better.<<<

===============

Update

El Nino chances fading says BoM Models

21.10.2014 09:37 Age: 1 day

Computer models used by Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) suggest that the emergence of the expected El Nino Pacific Ocean warming event is becoming less likely.

Only three of the eight computer models surveyed by BoM indicate the possibility of ocean conditions reaching El Nino thresholds by the middle of the southern hemisphere summer, with the remainder favouring persistence of neutral conditions, according to the latest summary of the prospects for a potential El Nino issued by BoM today (Tuesday, 21 October, 2014).

This compares with the situation just two weeks ago in the previous BoM report (issued on 7 October, 2014) when six of the eight models indicated the possibility of ocean conditions nearing El Nino thresholds by early southern hemisphere summer.

BoM reports that indicators for the so called El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the cyclic system of warming and cooling seen in the Pacific Ocean, as well as patterns of Australian rainfall, “continue to show some El Nino-like signatures, but they remain in the neutral range”.

http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/news-stories/article/el-nino-chances-fading-say-bom-models.html

for an excellent, precise & concise update on El Nino outcome 2014 / 2015 -

http://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2014/10/21/quicky-mid-october-2014-el-nino-update/

The_observer said:

Continuing on from the infamous ‘chat’ discussions of 11/07/2014 – and … http://tokyo3.org/forums/holiday/topics/4814/
.
.
Lets recap punters -

Peru said El Niño threat over, waters cooling and fish returning http://news.yahoo.com/peru-says-el-nino-threat-over-waters-cooling-232314417.html

And… El Nino master blaster Bob Tisdale said in his part 12 update –
For an El Niño to form, the ocean or atmospheric portions must both cooperate.
But, referring back to Figure 11, we’re definitely not seeing a comparative weakening of the trade winds this year, and there have been fewer
westerly wind bursts than there were in 1997. The additional westerly wind bursts and the continued weakening of the trade winds are what
drive additional warm water from the western tropical Pacific into the eastern equatorial Pacific, thus reinforcing the development of the El Niño.
Those are the additional feedbacks that are absent so far this year.

http://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2014/07/08/the-201415-el-nino-part-12-july-2014-update-the-feedbacks-need-to-kick-in-soon/
.
.

Ever the sceptic, Mr PF had his say -

From: PermeateFree
ID: 558317
Subject: re: El Nino – Stumpy Seahorse

>>Climate models surveyed by the Bureau continue to indicate that El Niño is likely to develop by spring 2014
The Bureau’s ENSO Tracker remains at El Niño ALERT,
indicating at least a 70% chance of El Niño developing in 2014. <<
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

>>>It will be interesting to see whose predictions are better.<<<

===============

Update

El Nino chances fading says BoM Models

21.10.2014 09:37 Age: 1 day

Computer models used by Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) suggest that the emergence of the expected El Nino Pacific Ocean warming event is becoming less likely.

Only three of the eight computer models surveyed by BoM indicate the possibility of ocean conditions reaching El Nino thresholds by the middle of the southern hemisphere summer, with the remainder favouring persistence of neutral conditions, according to the latest summary of the prospects for a potential El Nino issued by BoM today (Tuesday, 21 October, 2014).

This compares with the situation just two weeks ago in the previous BoM report (issued on 7 October, 2014) when six of the eight models indicated the possibility of ocean conditions nearing El Nino thresholds by early southern hemisphere summer.

BoM reports that indicators for the so called El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the cyclic system of warming and cooling seen in the Pacific Ocean, as well as patterns of Australian rainfall, “continue to show some El Nino-like signatures, but they remain in the neutral range”.

http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/news-stories/article/el-nino-chances-fading-say-bom-models.html

for an excellent, precise & concise update on El Nino outcome 2014 / 2015 -

http://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2014/10/21/quicky-mid-october-2014-el-nino-update/

So? Still undecided then. Don’t know why you should feel so smug Observer, nobodies reputation is on the line as the outcome is immaterial. There will either be droughts in the Eastern States this year or the next. It is not going to stop happening.

PermeateFree said:

So? Still undecided then. Don’t know why you should feel so smug Observer, nobodies reputation is on the line as the outcome is immaterial. There will either be droughts in the Eastern States this year or the next. It is not going to stop happening.

>>>So? Still undecided then. <<< no, quite concise up till NOW

>>>Don’t know why you should feel so smug Observer<<< not feeling smug at all Mr PF, just updating

>>>nobodies reputation is on the line as the outcome is immaterial<<< NO, if we were in a reasonable El Nino, as predicted at the time by the BoM
you would be gloating & reminding everyone that Bob ‘s a climate sceptic & I’m a scumbag!!

The_observer said:

PermeateFree said:

So? Still undecided then. Don’t know why you should feel so smug Observer, nobodies reputation is on the line as the outcome is immaterial. There will either be droughts in the Eastern States this year or the next. It is not going to stop happening.

>>>So? Still undecided then. <<< no, quite concise up till NOW

>>>Don’t know why you should feel so smug Observer<<< not feeling smug at all Mr PF, just updating

>>>nobodies reputation is on the line as the outcome is immaterial<<< NO, if we were in a reasonable El Nino, as predicted at the time by the BoM
you would be gloating & reminding everyone that Bob ‘s a climate sceptic & I’m a scumbag!!

Observer I don’t really care what you think these days, you are nothing more than an irritating mossie buzzing around your ear when you are trying to get some sleep. You are therefore just a nuisance and I don’t think anyone here except jjjust moi takes any notice of your ramblings.

PermeateFree said:

The_observer said:

PermeateFree said:

So? Still undecided then. Don’t know why you should feel so smug Observer, nobodies reputation is on the line as the outcome is immaterial. There will either be droughts in the Eastern States this year or the next. It is not going to stop happening.

>>>So? Still undecided then. <<< no, quite concise up till NOW

>>>Don’t know why you should feel so smug Observer<<< not feeling smug at all Mr PF, just updating

>>>nobodies reputation is on the line as the outcome is immaterial<<< NO, if we were in a reasonable El Nino, as predicted at the time by the BoM
you would be gloating & reminding everyone that Bob ‘s a climate sceptic & I’m a scumbag!!

Observer I don’t really care what you think these days, you are nothing more than an irritating mossie buzzing around your ear when you are trying to get some sleep. You are therefore just a nuisance and I don’t think anyone here except jjjust moi takes any notice of your ramblings.

Mr PF,,, what was it you were saying in the CSIRO water >>divining<< thread “no arguement so the Ad hominem begins”

you sir have a short memory

The_observer said:

PermeateFree said:

The_observer said:

>>>So? Still undecided then. <<< no, quite concise up till NOW

>>>Don’t know why you should feel so smug Observer<<< not feeling smug at all Mr PF, just updating

>>>nobodies reputation is on the line as the outcome is immaterial<<< NO, if we were in a reasonable El Nino, as predicted at the time by the BoM
you would be gloating & reminding everyone that Bob ‘s a climate sceptic & I’m a scumbag!!

Observer I don’t really care what you think these days, you are nothing more than an irritating mossie buzzing around your ear when you are trying to get some sleep. You are therefore just a nuisance and I don’t think anyone here except jjjust moi takes any notice of your ramblings.

Mr PF,,, what was it you were saying in the CSIRO water >>divining<< thread “no arguement so the Ad hominem begins”

you sir have a short memory

But it is perfectly true Observer, I have giving up getting hot under the collar with you as it is a complete waste of time. Absolutely nobody has made the slightest impact on your reasoning, so why should I bother?

PermeateFree said:

The_observer said:

PermeateFree said:

Observer I don’t really care what you think these days, you are nothing more than an irritating mossie buzzing around your ear when you are trying to get some sleep. You are therefore just a nuisance and I don’t think anyone here except jjjust moi takes any notice of your ramblings.

Mr PF,,, what was it you were saying in the CSIRO water >>divining<< thread “no arguement so the Ad hominem begins”

you sir have a short memory

But it is perfectly true Observer, I have giving up getting hot under the collar with you as it is a complete waste of time. Absolutely nobody has made the slightest impact on your reasoning, so why should I bother?

I wasn’t asking you to get “hot under the collar” Mr PF.

But at least a comment from you that Bob was on the money would go a long way

PermeateFree said:

The_observer said:

PermeateFree said:

Observer I don’t really care what you think these days, you are nothing more than an irritating mossie buzzing around your ear when you are trying to get some sleep. You are therefore just a nuisance and I don’t think anyone here except jjjust moi takes any notice of your ramblings.

Mr PF,,, what was it you were saying in the CSIRO water >>divining<< thread “no arguement so the Ad hominem begins”

you sir have a short memory

But it is perfectly true Observer, I have giving up getting hot under the collar with you as it is a complete waste of time. Absolutely nobody has made the slightest impact on your reasoning, so why should I bother?

—-

Ah… two peas in a pod.

tauto said:

PermeateFree said:

The_observer said:

Mr PF,,, what was it you were saying in the CSIRO water >>divining<< thread “no arguement so the Ad hominem begins”

you sir have a short memory

But it is perfectly true Observer, I have giving up getting hot under the collar with you as it is a complete waste of time. Absolutely nobody has made the slightest impact on your reasoning, so why should I bother?

—-

Ah… two peas in a pod.

Bill & Ben ???

LOL

The_observer said:

PermeateFree said:

The_observer said:

Mr PF,,, what was it you were saying in the CSIRO water >>divining<< thread “no arguement so the Ad hominem begins”

you sir have a short memory

But it is perfectly true Observer, I have giving up getting hot under the collar with you as it is a complete waste of time. Absolutely nobody has made the slightest impact on your reasoning, so why should I bother?

I wasn’t asking you to get “hot under the collar” Mr PF.

But at least a comment from you that Bob was on the money would go a long way

Likewise why should I care what he says. It was only a possibility and could go one way or the other. I don’t see your fixation.

The_observer said:

tauto said:

PermeateFree said:

But it is perfectly true Observer, I have giving up getting hot under the collar with you as it is a complete waste of time. Absolutely nobody has made the slightest impact on your reasoning, so why should I bother?

—-

Ah… two peas in a pod.

Bill & Ben ???

LOL

Bill says to Ben : “Hey Lubblupp”

Ben says: “If you loved me, you’d swallow that”

</Mikey>

PermeateFree said:

The_observer said:

PermeateFree said:

But it is perfectly true Observer, I have giving up getting hot under the collar with you as it is a complete waste of time. Absolutely nobody has made the slightest impact on your reasoning, so why should I bother?

I wasn’t asking you to get “hot under the collar” Mr PF.

But at least a comment from you that Bob was on the money would go a long way

Likewise why should I care what he says. It was only a possibility and could go one way or the other. I don’t see your fixation.

well of course you don’t

stumpy_seahorse said:

The_observer said:

tauto said:

—-

Ah… two peas in a pod.

Bill & Ben ???

LOL

Bill says to Ben : “Hey Lubblupp”

Ben says: “If you loved me, you’d swallow that”

</Mikey/>

classic,,, with a capital C

The_observer said:

PermeateFree said:

The_observer said:

I wasn’t asking you to get “hot under the collar” Mr PF.

But at least a comment from you that Bob was on the money would go a long way

Likewise why should I care what he says. It was only a possibility and could go one way or the other. I don’t see your fixation.

well of course you don’t

Are you really Gina’s love child?

PermeateFree said:

The_observer said:

PermeateFree said:

Likewise why should I care what he says. It was only a possibility and could go one way or the other. I don’t see your fixation.

well of course you don’t

Are you really Gina’s love child?

You’d love me to dress up as a Santa, wouldn’t you, Perm

The_observer said:

PermeateFree said:

The_observer said:

well of course you don’t

Are you really Gina’s love child?

You’d love me to dress up as a Santa, wouldn’t you, Perm

Only if I had the gun.

PermeateFree said:

The_observer said:

PermeateFree said:

Are you really Gina’s love child?

You’d love me to dress up as a Santa, wouldn’t you, Perm

Only if I had the gun.

MORRIE,,, MORRIE,,, MORRIE

The_observer said:

PermeateFree said:

The_observer said:

You’d love me to dress up as a Santa, wouldn’t you, Perm

Only if I had the gun.

MORRIE,,, MORRIE,,, MORRIE

I think morrie’s Santa suit has been taken back to the shop.

PermeateFree said:

The_observer said:

PermeateFree said:

But it is perfectly true Observer, I have giving up getting hot under the collar with you as it is a complete waste of time. Absolutely nobody has made the slightest impact on your reasoning, so why should I bother?

I wasn’t asking you to get “hot under the collar” Mr PF.

But at least a comment from you that Bob was on the money would go a long way

Likewise why should I care what he says. It was only a possibility and could go one way or the other.

I don’t see your fixation.

>>>It will be interesting to see whose predictions are better.<<<

The_observer said:

PermeateFree said:

The_observer said:

I wasn’t asking you to get “hot under the collar” Mr PF.

But at least a comment from you that Bob was on the money would go a long way

Likewise why should I care what he says. It was only a possibility and could go one way or the other.

I don’t see your fixation.

>>>It will be interesting to see whose predictions are better.<<<

Yes interesting! Why are you trying to make it more?

wtf has agw got to do with seasonal changes?

PermeateFree said:

The_observer said:

PermeateFree said:

But it is perfectly true Observer, I have giving up getting hot under the collar with you as it is a complete waste of time. Absolutely nobody has made the slightest impact on your reasoning, so why should I bother?

I wasn’t asking you to get “hot under the collar” Mr PF.

But at least a comment from you that Bob was on the money would go a long way

Likewise why should I care what he says. It was only a possibility and could go one way or the other.

No no Mr PF. an El Nino & a La Nina happen simultaneously, don’t they???

LOL el nincompoop

The_observer said:

PermeateFree said:

The_observer said:

I wasn’t asking you to get “hot under the collar” Mr PF.

But at least a comment from you that Bob was on the money would go a long way

Likewise why should I care what he says. It was only a possibility and could go one way or the other.

No no Mr PF. an El Nino & a La Nina happen simultaneously, don’t they???

LOL el nincompoop

Lost for words again Observer, no little book from the GWD’s organisation to look up your answers.

:)))

PermeateFree said:

The_observer said:

PermeateFree said:

Likewise why should I care what he says. It was only a possibility and could go one way or the other.

No no Mr PF. an El Nino & a La Nina happen simultaneously, don’t they???

LOL el nincompoop

Lost for words again Observer, no little book from the GWD’s organisation to look up your answers.

:)))

no wonder you were so terrified that Morrie might expose you & your postings / attitude here to your associates Mr PF.

very embarrassing for you :)

The_observer said:

PermeateFree said:

The_observer said:

No no Mr PF. an El Nino & a La Nina happen simultaneously, don’t they???

LOL el nincompoop

Lost for words again Observer, no little book from the GWD’s organisation to look up your answers.

:)))

no wonder you were so terrified that Morrie might expose you & your postings / attitude here to your associates Mr PF.

very embarrassing for you :)

I wish he would, at least then it would be out in the open and I would be able to defend myself. Currently everything is via private email where anything can and probably is being said.

The_observer said:

PermeateFree said:

The_observer said:

No no Mr PF. an El Nino & a La Nina happen simultaneously, don’t they???

LOL el nincompoop

Lost for words again Observer, no little book from the GWD’s organisation to look up your answers.

:)))

no wonder you were so terrified that Morrie might expose you & your postings / attitude here to your associates Mr PF.

very embarrassing for you :)

—-

oh ffs give it up

If you continue it will only lessen this forum and you.

PermeateFree said:

The_observer said:

PermeateFree said:

Lost for words again Observer, no little book from the GWD’s organisation to look up your answers.

:)))

no wonder you were so terrified that Morrie might expose you & your postings / attitude here to your associates Mr PF.

very embarrassing for you :)

I wish he would,

LOL

is that the legal advice you’ve received since you threatened him?

just send your associates an email telling them that you partake in deep scientific discussions here & tell them your nic

fixed

tauto said:

The_observer said:

PermeateFree said:

Lost for words again Observer, no little book from the GWD’s organisation to look up your answers.

:)))

no wonder you were so terrified that Morrie might expose you & your postings / attitude here to your associates Mr PF.

very embarrassing for you :)

—-

oh ffs give it up

If you continue it will only lessen this forum and you.

ok

how does the quasi-biennial oscillation effect the El-Nino/La-Nina system?

Postpocelipse said:

how does the quasi-biennial oscillation effect the El-Nino/La-Nina system?

Postpocelipse said:

how does the quasi-biennial oscillation effect the El-Nino/La-Nina system?

You did cheat didn’t you?

Postpocelipse said:

Postpocelipse said:

how does the quasi-biennial oscillation effect the El-Nino/La-Nina system?

Interesting reading. Thanks.

Michael V said:

Postpocelipse said:

Postpocelipse said:

how does the quasi-biennial oscillation effect the El-Nino/La-Nina system?

Interesting reading. Thanks.

I watched a show on how the QBO effects the Gulf Stream. It has profound effects on the Gulf Stream under the right conditions. There was no information provided on any effects on the Pacific systems.

Postpocelipse said:

Postpocelipse said:

how does the quasi-biennial oscillation effect the El-Nino/La-Nina system?

well the link gives no obvious clues, but it does mention “it was recognized by Richard Lindzen and James Holton”

worth looking into for that reason alone