Global potential for wind-generated electricity by Lu, McElroy, Kiviluoma estimates 1300 PWh/annum for total global wind power potential.

They used the following restrictions:
offshore restricted to 50 nm offshore
2.5 MW turbines used for onshore, 3.6 MW for offshore.
Areas not included include urban areas, forested areas, areas prone to ice.

Advanced western countries tend to have power consumption in the range from 5000 – 20000 kWh per capita per annum.
World Bank figures from 2011:
http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.USE.ELEC.KH.PC

USA 13246
Spain 5530
France 7292
Canada 16473
Germany 7081
Australia 10712

For the EU as a whole, it’s about 6100, but this includes some countries who are not quite at the same standard of wealth as Western Europe.

Broadly speaking, in developed nations the per capita power consumption is stable, as GDP increase is balanced by a decrease in the “power intensity” of the economy.

If global population peaked at 10 billion, and all the planet reached a consumption of 10000 kWh per capita per annum, then we are talking about 100 PWh per annum. I think this is a reasonable, perhaps generous, estimate of the long term power demand of the human race. Last year, consumption was circa 21 PWh.

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I wonder what effect it would have on the climate if we went for the full 1300 PW/a.

What percentage of anthropogenic carbon dioxide output is produced by power generation?

The Rev Dodgson said:

I wonder what effect it would have on the climate if we went for the full 1300 PW/a.

That might depend on what we do with that power…

Sibeen: about 27%.

Which raises an interesting point: if there were a wholesale effort to replace hydrocarbon driven vehicles With battery powered, this would greatly increase the total electricity demand.

(though, not 13 x)

I would have thought wind was part of the solution, not all of the solution..

Tidal power for example, is more reliable … It waits for no man.

Sure, sure, no doubt that’s the case.

Has there ever been reliable tidal power produced at any decent scale. I thought the engineering problems pushed it into the too hard basket, despite all the promise.

Gansu wind farm, to be completed in 2020, Will have a nameplate capacity of 20 GW. But, seems like mean output will be around 5 GW.

sibeen said:

Has there ever been reliable tidal power produced at any decent scale. I thought the engineering problems pushed it into the too hard basket, despite all the promise.

yeh it doesn’t tend to last too long in the real world..

Who would have thought pounding salt water was a difficult engineering environment..

Still.. if we waited everytime and engineer had a tanty and gave up because stuff was hard…

sibeen said:

Has there ever been reliable tidal power produced at any decent scale. I thought the engineering problems pushed it into the too hard basket, despite all the promise.

A bit of googling suggests the largest in operation is the Shiwa Lake plant, about 0.25 GW.

Total production in the world from tidal power is in the area of 0.8 GW.

It does seem to be difficult and expensive at present.

Dropbear said:

sibeen said:

Has there ever been reliable tidal power produced at any decent scale. I thought the engineering problems pushed it into the too hard basket, despite all the promise.

yeh it doesn’t tend to last too long in the real world..

Who would have thought pounding salt water was a difficult engineering environment..

Still.. if we waited everytime and engineer had a tanty and gave up because stuff was hard…

The French one has been going for almost 50 years:

The Rance Tidal Power Station is a tidal power station located on the estuary of the Rance River in Brittany, France.

Opened in 1966 as the world’s first tidal power station, it is currently operated by Électricité de France and was for 45 years the largest tidal power station in the world by installed capacity until the South Korean Sihwa Lake Tidal Power Station surpassed it in 2011.

Its 24 turbines reach peak output at 240 megawatts and average 62 megawatts, a capacity factor of approximately 26%. At an annual output of approximately 540 GWh, it supplies 0.012% of the power demand of France.

OTOH, the capacity factor is even lower than a good wind site.

Phil gives the following reasons why tide power is a PITA…

Environmental concerns

Tidal power can have effects on marine life. The turbines can accidentally kill swimming sea life with the rotating blades. Some fish may no longer utilize the area if threatened with a constant rotating or noise-making object. Marine life is a huge factor when placing tidal power energy generators in the water and precautions are made to ensure that as many marine animals as possible will not be affected by it. The Tethys database provides access to scientific literature and general information on the potential environmental effects of tidal energy.

Tidal turbines

The main environmental concern with tidal energy is associated with blade strike and entanglement of marine organisms as high speed water increases the risk of organisms being pushed near or through these devices. As with all offshore renewable energies, there is also a concern about how the creation of EMF and acoustic outputs may affect marine organisms. It should be noted that because these devices are in the water, the acoustic output can be greater than those created with offshore wind energy. Depending on the frequency and amplitude of sound generated by the tidal energy devices, this acoustic output can have varying effects on marine mammals (particularly those who echolocate to communicate and navigate in the marine environment such as dolphins and whales). Tidal energy removal can also cause environmental concerns such as degrading farfield water quality and disrupting sediment processes. Depending on the size of the project, these effects can range from small traces of sediment build up near the tidal device to severely affecting nearshore ecosystems and processes.

Tidal barrage

Installing a barrage may change the shoreline within the bay or estuary, affecting a large ecosystem that depends on tidal flats. Inhibiting the flow of water in and out of the bay, there may also be less flushing of the bay or estuary, causing additional turbidity (suspended solids) and less saltwater, which may result in the death of fish that act as a vital food source to birds and mammals. Migrating fish may also be unable to access breeding streams, and may attempt to pass through the turbines. The same acoustic concerns apply to tidal barrages. Decreasing shipping accessibility can become a socio-economic issue, though locks can be added to allow slow passage. However, the barrage may improve the local economy by increasing land access as a bridge. Calmer waters may also allow better recreation in the bay or estuary.

Tidal lagoon

Environmentally, the main concerns are blade strike on fish attempting to enter the lagoon, acoustic output from turbines, and changes in sedimentation processes. However, all these effects are localized and do not affect the entire estuary or bay.

Corrosion

Salt water causes corrosion in metal parts. It can be difficult to maintain tidal stream generators due to their size and depth in the water. The use of corrosion-resistant materials such as stainless steels, high-nickel alloys, copper-nickel alloys, nickel-copper alloys and titanium can greatly reduce, or eliminate, corrosion damage.

Mechanical fluids, such as lubricants, can leak out, which may be harmful to the marine life nearby. Proper maintenance can minimize the amount of harmful chemicals that may enter the environment.

Fouling

The biological events that happen when placing any structure in an area of high tidal currents and high biological productivity in the ocean will ensure that the structure becomes an ideal substrate for the growth of marine organisms. In the references of the Tidal Current Project at Race Rocks in British Columbia this is documented. Also see this page and Several structural materials and coatings were tested by the Lester Pearson College divers to assist Clean Current in reducing fouling on the turbine and other underwater infrastructure.

Structural Health Monitoring

The high load factors resulting from the fact that water is 800 times denser than air and the predictable and reliable nature of tides compared with the wind makes tidal energy particularly attractive for Electric power generation. Condition monitoring is the key for exploiting it cost-efficiently.

Of course there’s always nuclear to fall back on …

It’s a bit interesting what is happening in nuclear at the moment. There are 68 nuclear power plants (or rather, reactors) under construction, but actual power output from NPPs is flat.

Been updating myself on the latest news on power storage. Seems as though the best efficiencies you can get from electricity-methane-electricity are going to be around 45%. Might be better to have everyone on methane cooking and balance the supply so that methane you generate from surplus power just goes to the gas grid.

In terms of big rechargeable batteries, cheapest still seems to be vanadium redox, at around 0.30 dollars per Wh. Short term intermittency shouldn’t be a problem in a broad area, so it would mainly be a matter of demand matching. Going by the South Australian experience, two hours times mean power would be enough to balance load to demand.

Given my BOTE 10000 kWh per capita per annum estimate -> 1141 mean watts, we’d be looking at something like $700 per person to pay for sufficient storage.