2014 To Be Warmest Year On Record

The WMO says in a statement that the situation in 2014 is a result mainly of “record high global sea surface temperatures, which will very likely remain above normal until the end of the year. High sea temperatures, together with other factors, contributed to exceptionally heavy rainfall and floods in many countries and extreme drought in others.”

Scientific American says the U.N. report “uses data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA and the United Kingdom’s Met Office. To place the findings in a historical context, scientists usually compare temperatures with ‘normal’ temperatures averaged over a 30-year stretch, usually 1961 to 1990.”

The magazine says:

“Driving the temperature rise in 2014 were the oceans — the Pacific, the polar and subtropical north Atlantic, parts of the south Atlantic, and the Indian Ocean all experienced the warmest temperatures ever recorded. Global sea surface temperatures were 0.45 degree Celsius above the 1961-90 normal.” “On land, temperatures were 0.86 C above normal.”

They say that so often it’s lost all meaning. Every year for the past 10 years has been the warmest on record.

Divine Angel said:

They say that so often it’s lost all meaning. Every year for the past 10 years has been the warmest on record.

Depends if we’re talking about global or national records I think.

Divine Angel said:

They say that so often it’s lost all meaning. Every year for the past 10 years has been the warmest on record.

That’s not true. Of the last ten years, only 2005 and 2010 have been the warmest on record.

Divine Angel said:

They say that so often it’s lost all meaning. Every year for the past 10 years has been the warmest on record.

I know right… It’s like a broken record

Dropbear said:

Divine Angel said:

They say that so often it’s lost all meaning. Every year for the past 10 years has been the warmest on record.

I know right… It’s like a broken record

Dear oh dear.

Dropbear said:

Divine Angel said:

They say that so often it’s lost all meaning. Every year for the past 10 years has been the warmest on record.

I know right… It’s like a broken record

ROFL

It’s probably my fault. That is for my childhood and up to when I was (the 1961to 1990 bit). Probably my witchcraft. After that I got better and made things hotter.

(It’s still amusing to think that even though they now say ‘on record’ it’s quite a small bit of human history)

I wonder how many of us remember when broken records did actually repeat the same thing over and over.

Anyway, this is what the BoM has to say about the climate:
http://www.bom.gov.au/state-of-the-climate/

It says sea-level has risen by 225 mm since 1880 (or thereabouts). I didn’t realise it was that much.

The Rev Dodgson said:

I wonder how many of us remember when broken records did actually repeat the same thing over and over.

Anyway, this is what the BoM has to say about the climate:
http://www.bom.gov.au/state-of-the-climate/

It says sea-level has risen by 225 mm since 1880 (or thereabouts). I didn’t realise it was that much.

Probably because you don’t have a mark cut in rock, to watch.

On the up side: Drowning risk negligible

Ian said:

On the up side: Drowning risk negligible

:) There’s always an upside.

It was only 110 years ago that we were warned about this.
Dot Mackellar wrote that we were a land of drought and flooding rains, and because we did nothing then we are still a land of drought and flooding rains.
It will stay like that unless we act NOW.

oh yeah, it’s going to be the hottest year on record,,, even if it isn’t.

oh yeah, that disproves the pause, the hiatus.

oh yeah, there’s a climate conference on in Lima

LOL

Dr Roy Spencer http://www.drroyspencer.com/about/

http://www.drroyspencer.com/2014/12/2014-a-record-warm-year-probably-not/

As continual fiddling with the global surface thermometer data leads to an ever-warmer present and an ever-cooler past, many of us are increasingly skeptical that beating a previous “warmest” year by hundredths of a degree has any real-world meaning.
But there are some very good reasons to be skeptical of the claim that 2014 will be the “hottest year ever”…at the very least from the standpoint of it having any real impact on peoples’ lives.

2014 Won’t Be Statistically Different from 2010
For a “record” temperature to be statistically significant, it has to rise above its level of measurement error, of which there are many for thermometers: relating to changes in location, instrumentation, measurement times of day, inadequate coverage of the Earth, etc. Oh…and that pesky urban heat island effect.
A couple hundredths of a degree warmer than a previous year (which 2014 will likely be) should be considered a “tie”, not a record.

Our Best Technology, Satellites, Say 2014 Will Not be the Warmest
Our satellite estimates of global temperature, which have much more complete geographic coverage than thermometers, reveal that 2014 won’t be even close to a record warm year.
In fact, the satellite and thermometer technologies seem to be diverging in what they are telling us in recent years, with the thermometers continuing to warm, and the satellite temperatures essentially flat-lining.

So, why have world governments chosen to rely on surface thermometers, which were never designed for high accuracy, and yet ignore their own high-tech satellite network of calibrated sensors, especially when the satellites also agree with weather balloon data?

The Satellite data, far more accurate that land based thermometer data, clearly shows that this year isn’t headed for a record, and, 1998 is still the warmest on record.

UAH

rss

Did ENSO and the “Monster” Kelvin Wave Contribute to the Record High Global Sea Surface Temperatures in 2014?

Argo And Ocean Heat Content

Examination of ocean heat content and sea surface temperature

The Rev Dodgson said:

I wonder how many of us remember when broken records did actually repeat the same thing over and over.

I remember many many times as a kid listening to the local radio station and the stylus would get to the end of the record and just keep skipping back while the DJ was obviously off having a piss or a joint out the back.

The Rev Dodgson said:

I wonder how many of us remember when broken records did actually repeat the same thing over and over.

like T_O.

The sea-level graphs here are quite interesting:
http://www.cmar.csiro.au/sealevel/sl_hist_last_15.html

It seems that maximum sea level in any year occurs consistently in November.

I wonder why that is.

Also, applying pseudo-skeptic techniques to the recent rate of rise I note an increase of about 25 mm from Feb 2011 to Nov 2012. That’s an annual rate of 14.2899061 mm/year !!!

The Rev Dodgson said:

The sea-level graphs here are quite interesting:
http://www.cmar.csiro.au/sealevel/sl_hist_last_15.html

It seems that maximum sea level in any year occurs consistently in November.

I wonder why that is.

Also, applying pseudo-skeptic techniques to the recent rate of rise I note an increase of about 25 mm from Feb 2011 to Nov 2012. That’s an annual rate of 14.2899061 mm/year !!!

Shouldn’t Nov-Nov be used as a comparison?

jjjust moi said:

The Rev Dodgson said:

The sea-level graphs here are quite interesting:
http://www.cmar.csiro.au/sealevel/sl_hist_last_15.html

It seems that maximum sea level in any year occurs consistently in November.

I wonder why that is.

Also, applying pseudo-skeptic techniques to the recent rate of rise I note an increase of about 25 mm from Feb 2011 to Nov 2012. That’s an annual rate of 14.2899061 mm/year !!!

Shouldn’t Nov-Nov be used as a comparison?

Yes, if I had been serious I would of course have looked at the averaged trend over a much longer period (as the article does).

But pseudo-skeptics only believe in this approach when it suits their preconceptions.

It would be easy to be disheartened by the local political situation In Australia but it is worthwhile remembering that elsewhere, denialism is in retreat. In the USA, Europe, Japan and China there has been increasing acceptance of the physical reality over the past five years or so. It’s really just Canada and Australia that are the hold-outs.

The Rev Dodgson said:

The sea-level graphs here are quite interesting:
http://www.cmar.csiro.au/sealevel/sl_hist_last_15.html

It seems that maximum sea level in any year occurs consistently in November.

I wonder why that is.

Also, applying pseudo-skeptic techniques to the recent rate of rise I note an increase of about 25 mm from Feb 2011 to Nov 2012. That’s an annual rate of 14.2899061 mm/year !!!

Hoo-Roo Tuvalu..

Skip tuvalu

dv said:

Skip tuvalu

my darling..

dv said:

Skip tuvalu

No probs there. Most Tuvaluans are in Oz playing in the NRL.

dv said:

It would be easy to be disheartened by the local political situation In Australia but it is worthwhile remembering that elsewhere, denialism is in retreat. In the USA, Europe, Japan and China there has been increasing acceptance of the physical reality over the past five years or so. It’s really just Canada and Australia that are the hold-outs.

LOL

a global poll done by the United Nations, with over six million responses from all over the planet..

The revealed truth is that of the sixteen choices given to people regarding what they think are the important issues in their lives, climate change is dead last.

http://data.myworld2015.org/

stop talking shit dv

The_observer said:

dv said:

It would be easy to be disheartened by the local political situation In Australia but it is worthwhile remembering that elsewhere, denialism is in retreat. In the USA, Europe, Japan and China there has been increasing acceptance of the physical reality over the past five years or so. It’s really just Canada and Australia that are the hold-outs.

LOL

a global poll done by the United Nations, with over six million responses from all over the planet..

The revealed truth is that of the sixteen choices given to people regarding what they think are the important issues in their lives, climate change is dead last.

http://data.myworld2015.org/

stop talking shit dv

The results won’t been seen immediately so its out of peoples minds, plus as an individual unless your government does something its pointless

What the hell? I don’t know if you are pretending to be stupid t-o, but there’s no way you could think that data was relevant to whether the major governments are denialist or not. Of the developed nations, only Canada and Australia have de facto denialist governments.

Cymek said:

The_observer said:

dv said:

It would be easy to be disheartened by the local political situation In Australia but it is worthwhile remembering that elsewhere, denialism is in retreat. In the USA, Europe, Japan and China there has been increasing acceptance of the physical reality over the past five years or so. It’s really just Canada and Australia that are the hold-outs.

LOL

a global poll done by the United Nations, with over six million responses from all over the planet..

The revealed truth is that of the sixteen choices given to people regarding what they think are the important issues in their lives, climate change is dead last.

http://data.myworld2015.org/

stop talking shit dv

The results won’t been seen immediately so its out of peoples minds, plus as an individual unless your government does something its pointless

You can make statistics say anything you want…

dv said:

What the hell? I don’t know if you are pretending to be stupid t-o, but there’s no way you could think that data was relevant to whether the major governments are denialist or not. Of the developed nations, only Canada and Australia have de facto denialist governments.

>>>“In the USA, Europe, Japan and China there has been increasing acceptance of the physical reality over the past five years or so” <<<

LOL

Saturday, 28 May 2011 16:58 Agence France-Presse

Russia, Japan and Canada told the G8 they would not join a second round of carbon cuts under the Kyoto Protocol

The US reiterated it would remain outside the treaty.

Chine is under NO obligation to to anything, and won’t, other than continuing to build new coal fired power plants, create a gas industry and will become the world leader in nuclear power.

Obama has lost power in both houses. The Republican government to replace him will do fuck all other than continue to FRACK gas & increase nuclear.

Obama’s a goner pal

What has Kyoto got to do with anything?

stumpy_seahorse said:

You can make statistics say anything you want…

It was a questionair co-ordinated by the UN

It asked people to prioritise, in order of importance – first to last – from the list of issues provided.

http://data.myworld2015.org/

roughbarked said:

What has Kyoto got to do with anything?

dv said that in the USA, Europe, Japan and China there has been increasing acceptance of the physical reality over the past five years or so.

You’d reckon they’d sign up for a protocol to reduce emissions,,, if they really were fair fucken dinkum mate?

Srsly, Obs, this is a repeated pattern of your behaviour. You use irrelevant evidence to combat arguments that others have not even raised: it’s hard for me to accept that you don’t realise this, so I can only assume that either a) it is for your own entertainment in which case good luck to you or b) you are trying trick stupid people, but there are in fact few stupid here.

What I want to know is how over 6 million people are aware of The_observer

dv said:

Srsly, Obs, this is a repeated pattern of your behaviour. You use irrelevant evidence to combat arguments that others have not even raised: it’s hard for me to accept that you don’t realise this, so I can only assume that either a) it is for your own entertainment in which case good luck to you or b) you are trying trick stupid people, but there are in fact few stupid here.

well dv, you’re telling the story

give some evidence to backup -“it is worthwhile remembering that elsewhere, denialism is in retreat. In the USA, Europe, Japan and China there has been increasing acceptance of the physical reality over the past five years or so.”

I don’t see any evidence for that, and you’re speaking out your arse

Cymek said:

What I want to know is how over 6 million people are aware of The_observer

um, is that supposed to be a joke, or something?

And dv, why ignore the fact that this thread is bullshit propaganda for the latest climate graveytrainfest.

Neither of the satellite data sets show any chance of 2014 being the hottest year on record.

The_observer said:

stumpy_seahorse said:

You can make statistics say anything you want…

It was a questionair co-ordinated by the UN

It asked people to prioritise, in order of importance – first to last – from the list of issues provided.

http://data.myworld2015.org/

I think they got it correct..

stumpy_seahorse said:

The_observer said:

stumpy_seahorse said:

You can make statistics say anything you want…

It was a questionair co-ordinated by the UN

It asked people to prioritise, in order of importance – first to last – from the list of issues provided.

http://data.myworld2015.org/

I think they got it correct..

that’s your best comeback is it

Roy W. Spencer received his Ph.D. in meteorology at the University of Wisconsin-Madison in 1981. Before becoming a Principal Research Scientist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville in 2001, he was a Senior Scientist for Climate Studies at NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center, where he and Dr. John Christy received NASA’s Exceptional Scientific Achievement Medal for their global temperature monitoring work with satellites. Dr. Spencer’s work with NASA continues as the U.S. Science Team leader for the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer flying on NASA’s Aqua satellite. He has provided congressional testimony several times on the subject of global warming.

So, why are the surface thermometer data used to the exclusion of our best technology — satellites — when tracking global temperatures? Because they better support the narrative of a dangerously warming planet.

a bigger problem than the spotty sampling of the thermometer data is the endless adjustment game applied to the thermometer data. The thermometer network is made up of a patchwork of non-research quality instruments that were never made to monitor long-term temperature changes to tenths or hundredths of a degree, and the huge data voids around the world are either ignored or in-filled with fictitious data.
Furthermore, land-based thermometers are placed where people live, and people build stuff, often replacing cooling vegetation with manmade structures that cause an artificial warming (urban heat island, UHI) effect right around the thermometer. The data adjustment processes in place cannot reliably remove the UHI effect because it can’t be distinguished from real global warming.
Satellite microwave radiometers, however, are equipped with laboratory-calibrated platinum resistance thermometers, which have demonstrated stability to thousandths of a degree over many years, and which are used to continuously calibrate the satellite instruments once every 8 seconds. The satellite measurements still have residual calibration effects that must be adjusted for, but these are usually on the order of hundredths of a degree, rather than tenths or whole degrees in the case of ground-based thermometers.
In the meantime, the alarmists will continue to use the outdated, spotty, and heavily-massaged thermometer data to support their case. For a group that trumpets the high-tech climate modeling effort used to guide energy policy — models which have failed to forecast (or even hindcast!) the lack of warming in recent years — they sure do cling bitterly to whatever will support their case.
==============================================

suggesting that 2014 will be the hottest year on record is utterty verbal diarrhoea posted by a bullshit artist

“China has rejected the scrutiny of efforts to limit carbon emissions, a key tool that the US says is necessary as more than 190 countries work to come up with a new deal to fight climate change.

Chinese negotiators sought at a climate conference in Lima, Peru, to delete provisions in a draft text that would have paved the way for other countries and non-governmental organisations to submit questions about its carbon-reduction plans, according to environmental groups that are official observers to the talks. The pledges will be included in a global deal to be sealed next year and that starts in 2020.

US lead climate envoy Todd Stern told reporters that all national pledges should be subject to scrutiny by other countries, saying “the sunshine is intended to prod countries to be as ambitious as possible” in limiting carbon emissions.

The United States and China last month jointly announced efforts they plan to make under the new climate deal.

The spirit of constructive cooperation of the US-China agreement seems to have come to a full stop,” Liz Gallagher, senior adviser to the policy analyst group E3G, said on Saturday in an interview in Lima, where two weeks of UN climate talks began last Monday

China’s carbon-reduction plans are hydro, gas & nuclear, not renewables

The us – fracking gas & nuclear

fucking bullshit artists

bullshit artist dv

which of these temp data sats, satellite or thermometer, shows likelyhood that 2014 will be the hottest ???

full of shit mate

http://www.news.com.au/national/western-australia/marble-bar-too-hot-to-handle-with-48c-maximum-forecast/story-fnii5thn-1227148612486

dv said:

It would be easy to be disheartened by the local political situation In Australia but it is worthwhile remembering that elsewhere, denialism is in retreat. In the USA, Europe, Japan and China there has been increasing acceptance of the physical reality over the past five years or so. It’s really just Canada and Australia that are the hold-outs.

from:
http://grist.org/climate-energy/no-one-sucks-on-climate-change-like-australia-mate/

“No one sucks on climate change like Australia, mate

“By Graham Readfearn on 10 Dec 2014 4 comments

“Cross-posted from The Guardian

“Australia has been named the worst-performing industrial country in the world on climate change in a report released at international negotiations in Peru.

“The climate change performance index ranked Denmark as the best-performing country in the world, followed by Sweden and Britain.

“Among the world’s top 10 emitters, Germany was ranked the highest at 22. Australia was second bottom overall, above Saudi Arabia — which was not classified as industrial.

“The report states: “The new conservative Australian government has apparently made good on last year’s announcement and reversed the climate policies previously in effect. As a result, the country lost a further 21 positions in the policy evaluation compared to last year, thus replacing Canada as the worst-performing industrial country.””

WooHoo

We’re number 1

To be fair, Australia is locked in to using fossil fuels for transport agriculture and mining. Then also, most of us live near the coast where we need every known weed cutting and slashing device, all fossil fuel powered.

sibeen said:

WooHoo

We’re number 1

Upside down Miss Jane – we’re 22nd out of 22.

party_pants said:

sibeen said:

WooHoo

We’re number 1

Upside down Miss Jane – we’re 22nd out of 22.

Where are we on a table which shows domestic GHG production?

roughbarked said:

To be fair, Australia is locked in to using fossil fuels for transport agriculture and mining.

I was sitting behind a truck in traffic the other day and noticed that his placard frame had ‘Without Trucks Australia Stops’ on a spare placard. Took all the self-control I could muster to not jump out of the car and ad ‘importing shit from China’ with a black texta.

Hmmmmm….

Tamb said:

party_pants said:

sibeen said:

WooHoo

We’re number 1

Upside down Miss Jane – we’re 22nd out of 22.

Where are we on a table which shows domestic GHG production?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions

Rule 303 said:

roughbarked said:

To be fair, Australia is locked in to using fossil fuels for transport agriculture and mining.

I was sitting behind a truck in traffic the other day and noticed that his placard frame had ‘Without Trucks Australia Stops’ on a spare placard. Took all the self-control I could muster to not jump out of the car and ad ‘importing shit from China’ with a black texta.

Hmmmmm….

If I’d been there I could have jumped out and done it while you kept idling.

roughbarked said:

If I’d been there I could have jumped out and done it while you kept idling.

See, that’s what I needed; A right-hand man. You could write it and I could take a photo of it and we could just drive off as though nothing at all had happened.

Rule 303 said:

roughbarked said:

If I’d been there I could have jumped out and done it while you kept idling.

See, that’s what I needed; A right-hand man. You could write it and I could take a photo of it and we could just drive off as though nothing at all had happened.

:)

• See, that’s what I needed; A right-hand man

You got one of them fancy foreign cars with the steering wheel on the wrong side?

furious said:

You got one of them fancy foreign cars with the steering wheel on the wrong side?

Nope. I got one of them fancy foreign cars with the steering wheel on the right side.

Update

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2014/01/150116-2014-hottest-year-global-warming-climate-science/

2014 Confirmed as Hottest Year On Record, With Spike in Ocean Temperatures
NOAA and NASA measurements agree: Last year was a record-setter.

The year 2014 was the hottest since record-keeping began in 1880, according to independent reviews of temperature data released Friday by NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Globally, land and ocean temperatures were 1.24°F (0.69°C) higher than the average for the 20th century—passing previous highs set in 2005 and 2010.

The announcement comes as international negotiators are still struggling to reach agreement to reduce global carbon dioxide emissions in the wake of increasingly alarming predictions from climate scientists around the world.

The warming last year broke regional records from Australia to Anchorage and from southern Europe to South America. Every continent on Earth had regions that broke high-temperature records