A “substantial” El Nino event has begun, raising the likelihood of worsening drought over inland Australia and higher daytime temperatures, the Bureau of Meteorology said.

The bureau’s call comes days after Fairfax Media predicted the declaration would be made on Tuesday.

“This will be quite a substantial event,” David Jones, head of climate monitoring at the bureau.“It’s not a weak one or a near miss” as in 2014, he said.

El Ninos are events in which equatorial trade winds in the Pacific weaken or even reverse their normal east-to-west pattern. Rainfall tends to shift eastwards away from the Australian continent and south-east Asia, while countries on the eastern Pacific fringe cop more rain than usual.

The last El Nino event ended in March 2010 and was a relatively mild one, with above-average summer rain countering the below-normal winter-spring rainfall totals that preceded it.

http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/bureau-of-meteorology-declares-el-nino-event-in-australia-20150512-ggzdgy.html

Is the BoM hoping to get their prediction right this time?

Let’s all pray it’s a mild..

One

The_observer said:

Is the BoM hoping to get their prediction right this time?

If only you would get the facts right. Last year was NOT a prediction, but was clearly stated a POSIBILITY.

Yes, it was their prediction.

The_observer said:

Yes, it was their prediction.

Well apparently they ARE predicting an El Nino THIS year, so you will be able to see the consequences with more records broken.

Whoohoo, this should push global temperatures through the roof like in 1998, interesting times ahead.

Peak Warming Man said:

Whoohoo, this should push global temperatures through the roof like in 1998, interesting times ahead.

Very likely, the only plus side of it will be the disappointment of the Deniers.

If there is an El Nino pf,,, what on earth will that prove to you?

The_observer said:

If there is an El Nino pf,,, what on earth will that prove to you?

Drought in parts of eastern Australia. The important part is this will be on top of our already high temperatures, so if this event is a strong El Nino event, it will very likely push past the last peak global temperatures in 1998.

PermeateFree said:

The_observer said:

If there is an El Nino pf,,, what on earth will that prove to you?

if this event is a strong El Nino event, it will very likely push past the last peak global temperatures in 1998.

Oh, aren’t you hoping

LOL

What the BOM actually said is (appropriately) worded much more cautiously than the article might suggest:

“The tropical Pacific is in the early stages of El Niño. Based upon model outlooks and current observations, the Bureau’s ENSO Tracker has been raised to El Niño status.

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indicators have shown a steady trend towards El Niño levels since the start of the year. Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean have exceeded El Niño thresholds for the past month, supported by warmer-than-average waters below the surface. Trade winds have remained consistently weaker than average since the start of the year, cloudiness at the Date Line has increased and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has remained negative for several months. These indicators suggest the tropical Pacific Ocean and atmosphere have started to couple and reinforce each other, indicating El Niño is likely to persist in the coming months.

International climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures are likely to remain above El Niño thresholds through the coming southern winter and at least into spring.

El Niño is often associated with below-average winter and spring rainfall over eastern Australia, and above-average daytime temperatures over the southern half of the country. However, the current May to July outlook suggests much of Australia is likely to be wetter than average. This is because a warmer-than-average Indian Ocean is dominating this outlook. El Niño is expected to become the dominant influence on Australian climate during the second half of the year.”

Invest in share cropping California futures, it’s going to rain like blazers and break the west coast protracted drought and we’ll be rich, richer than Tim Flannery.

Peak Warming Man said:

Invest in share cropping California futures, it’s going to rain like blazers and break the west coast protracted drought and we’ll be rich, richer than Tim Flannery.

Ask Tim what Gaia has to say about it all

I thought the boffins couldn’t definitely call an El Niño event til September. What gives?

Divine Angel said:

I thought the boffins couldn’t definitely call an El Niño event til September. What gives?

Maybe ‘cos it’s a bumper one.

just on the news, seems it is pretty sure bet this time. the signs are there.

>>>>

A “substantial” El Nino event has begun, raising the likelihood of worsening drought over inland Australia and higher daytime temperatures, the Bureau of Meteorology said.

“This will be quite a substantial event,” David Jones, head of climate monitoring at the bureau.“It’s not a weak one or a near miss” as in 2014, he said.

<<<<

So I can take it as correct that the BoM is predicting a ‘STRONG’ El Nino event for 2015-16

Si ?

The_observer said:

So I can take it as correct that the BoM is predicting a ‘STRONG’ El Nino event for 2015-16

Si ?

They didn’t say ‘STRONG’, they said substantial.

Bubblecar said:

The_observer said:

So I can take it as correct that the BoM is predicting a ‘STRONG’ El Nino event for 2015-16

Si ?

They didn’t say ‘STRONG’, they said substantial.

so, what does substantial mean ‘STRONG’ or ‘MODERATE’

or are they being intentionally ambiguous?

substantial

adjective
1.
of considerable importance, size, or worth.

considerable

adjective
notably large in size, amount, or extent.
————————————————————

I’m gunna take it the BoM means ‘STRONG’!