Might as well make a comp of it. What will be the 2PP in the first nationwide poll conducted with MT as Lib leader?
I am going to guess 52-48 in the Coalition’s favour.
I predict MT will have approval at 50%, disapproval at 40%. Bug Shorpy will have approval at 26%, disapproval at 53%. MT will be at about 65% as preferred PM.
too early to predict
Malcolm hasn’t said what he wants to do
if he wants to bring in 50,000 refugees you’ll see the votes flee the LNP faster than you can blink
Come on, stick your neck out
I don’t follow polls closely enough to put figures to it, but you’d expect Talcum to do well for a while merely on account of not being Tony.
I’m not Tony either
dv said:
I’m not Tony either
Then you’d probably fare well in the polls.
dv said:
Come on, stick your neck out
Too many people around here with sharp axes.
dv said:
Might as well make a comp of it. What will be the 2PP in the first nationwide poll conducted with MT as Lib leader?I am going to guess 52-48 in the Coalition’s favour.
I predict MT will have approval at 50%, disapproval at 40%. Bug Shorpy will have approval at 26%, disapproval at 53%. MT will be at about 65% as preferred PM.
OK, since there’s just the two of us:
I am going to guess 53-47 in the Coalition’s favour.
I predict MT will have approval at 51%, disapproval at 41%. Bug Shorpy will have approval at 27%, disapproval at 54%. MT will be at about 66% as preferred PM.
Personally I think that the Liberals had a good chance because Labor had tarnished its rep. Had Tony stayed there they would have hit rock bottom at the next election. From what I’ve seen and heard today, there is nothing to be gained by putting Malcom in his place. Tony has wrecked the libs in many staunch Lib voters eyes. The Nationals don’t like any of it and basicsally if Malcom can’t pull shit together quickly which he has no firm ground on then the coalition is stuffed. They are the ones that said Labor could never come back from the Rudd / Gillard fiasco then they went and did it to themselves becauaseTony said to. I heard a Community radio announcer today saying in relation to Tont and Malcom that you just can’t keep telling porkies and get away with it. The electorate thinks all politicians are shit and the Liberals aren’t their favourite flavour at present.
The Rev Dodgson said:
dv said:
Might as well make a comp of it. What will be the 2PP in the first nationwide poll conducted with MT as Lib leader?I am going to guess 52-48 in the Coalition’s favour.
I predict MT will have approval at 50%, disapproval at 40%. Bug Shorpy will have approval at 26%, disapproval at 53%. MT will be at about 65% as preferred PM.
OK, since there’s just the two of us:
I am going to guess 53-47 in the Coalition’s favour.
I predict MT will have approval at 51%, disapproval at 41%. Bug Shorpy will have approval at 27%, disapproval at 54%. MT will be at about 66% as preferred PM.
Nice work, you’d have been great on The Price Is Right.
I can’t see the 2PP result changing so much; my prediction 52:48 for the ALP.
As for preferred PM I cannot see MT over 45%.
55-45 in the Coalition’s favour.
MT approval: 53%, disapproval 38%
Shorpy approval: 25%, disapproval 56%. MT 67% preferred PM.
Bubblecar said:
55-45 in the Coalition’s favour.MT approval: 53%, disapproval 38%
Shorpy approval: 25%, disapproval 56%. MT 67% preferred PM.
Ha, nice boxing of the perfidious Rev.
I’m in a safe coalition seat and nobody I’ve talked to wants Talcum.
roughbarked said:
I’m in a safe coalition seat and nobody I’ve talked to wants Talcum.
No one I’ve met in real life wants Abbott, in any seat, apart from PWM. I do not recall any PM ever being so universally unpopular.
dv said:
roughbarked said:
I’m in a safe coalition seat and nobody I’ve talked to wants Talcum.
No one I’ve met in real life wants Abbott, in any seat, apart from PWM. I do not recall any PM ever being so universally unpopular.
An old couple in today quite liked Mr Abbott, although, I suspect the wife just ‘follows’ the husbands lead on that one.
I think Cassidy is right that there’s a yearning for stability, with a reasonably competent PM likely to be rewarded for that fact alone.
poikilotherm said:
dv said:
roughbarked said:
I’m in a safe coalition seat and nobody I’ve talked to wants Talcum.
No one I’ve met in real life wants Abbott, in any seat, apart from PWM. I do not recall any PM ever being so universally unpopular.
An old couple in today quite liked Mr Abbott, although, I suspect the wife just ‘follows’ the husbands lead on that one.
I suspect that’s it. I rarely talk to the over-80s set about politics.
dv said:
roughbarked said:
I’m in a safe coalition seat and nobody I’ve talked to wants Talcum.
No one I’ve met in real life wants Abbott, in any seat, apart from PWM. I do not recall any PM ever being so universally unpopular.
Tony Abbott was the worst PM ever!
CrazyNeutrino said:
dv said:
roughbarked said:
I’m in a safe coalition seat and nobody I’ve talked to wants Talcum.
No one I’ve met in real life wants Abbott, in any seat, apart from PWM. I do not recall any PM ever being so universally unpopular.
Tony Abbott was the worst PM ever!
I dunno about that but you’d be going back to the 1920s to beat him.
dv said:
roughbarked said:
I’m in a safe coalition seat and nobody I’ve talked to wants Talcum.
No one I’ve met in real life wants Abbott, in any seat, apart from PWM. I do not recall any PM ever being so universally unpopular.
Correct.
Bubblecar said:
I think Cassidy is right that there’s a yearning for stability, with a reasonably competent PM likely to be rewarded for that fact alone.
True enough but I’m not sure anyone can call Turnbull reasonably stable.
WTF, Joe is still treasurer??? well that was all a waste of time then.
Peak Warming Man said:
WTF, Joe is still treasurer??? well that was all a waste of time then.
Yeah.
Peak Warming Man said:
WTF, Joe is still treasurer??? well that was all a waste of time then.
I thought they said there would be no change in the cabinet until next week
dv said:
I thought they said there would be no change in the cabinet until next week
Thats what I heard
CrazyNeutrino said:
dv said:
I thought they said there would be no change in the cabinet until next week
Thats what I heard
So the fact that Noodles is still Trezh tells us nothing
dv said:
CrazyNeutrino said:
dv said:
I thought they said there would be no change in the cabinet until next week
Thats what I heard
So the fact that Noodles is still Trezh tells us nothing
Whatever Talcum does, if he doesn’t get rid of all those Abbott picked, he’ll only fail.
dv said:
Bubblecar said:
55-45 in the Coalition’s favour.MT approval: 53%, disapproval 38%
Shorpy approval: 25%, disapproval 56%. MT 67% preferred PM.
Ha, nice boxing of the perfidious Rev.
No dv, you are the Perfidious one.
I live in Sinee
UK voting intention polls are out: Conservatives down 2% to 38%, Labour up 1% to 32%.
Quoth the Guardian:
The latest ICM/Guardian poll shows a slight drop in the Conservative (38%) share of the vote, with newly elected Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn enjoying an immediate honeymoon boost of 1-point (32%), which of course, is most likely to be a function of normal sampling variation.
http://www.icmunlimited.com/media-centre/polls/icm-guardian-poll
Saw a pale bloke yesterday, might have been the perfidious albino.
The National and Liberal parties have agreed on a deal to bind the two parties as a coalition government under Malcolm Turnbull.
The ABC can reveal that the agreement includes moving the water portfolio, which has always been held by a Liberal member, into agriculture.
> This looks to be an attempt to put the kybosh on the MDB plan.
>with newly elected Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn enjoying an immediate honeymoon boost of 1-point (32%),
Note the tiny size of the boost, and that this is likely to be his best score.
If your party seeks a genuinely electable left-wing alternative, you don’t choose a leader saddled with all the woeful prejudices and alliances of the hard Cold War left. And all of it on 32 years of his recorded statements as a backbencher who regarded winning elections as a betrayal of his supposed “principles”.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/09/15/morgan-turnbull-70-shorten-24/
http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/6451-australia-better-pm-turnbull-shorten-september-15-2015-2015091505570
inShare
A snap SMS poll finds Malcolm Turnbull with a resounding lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister, while Essential Research offers its final poll of the Tony Abbott era.
The first nugget of polling of the Malcolm Turnbull era is impressive even by the usual honeymoon effect standard, with Roy Morgan finding Turnbull enjoying a 70-24 lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister, including a 50-44 lead among Labor supporters. The poll was conducted today from a sample of 1204 respondents.
——-
Dearie me
the honeymoon is over for shorten.
:-)
Shorten was still talking about a stable government today. Dude, that ship has long sailed. Give it up.
So I was closest but far too timid.
turnbull will also have to show he is different to abbott. people will soon spot whether he’s talking shit but just saying it better than abbott or not.
Those honeymoon results will settle down, but they’ll put a big smile on Talcum’s face while Tony will be punching the wall again.
ChrispenEvan said:
turnbull will also have to show he is different to abbott. people will soon spot whether he’s talking shit but just saying it better than abbott or not.
Okay so the first full poll after the change is the Reachtel jobby. They aren’t the best but n>3000 so it should mean something.
###2PP
50-50, which is a surprise. The previous result was 47-53.
###First Prefs
Libs up 2.8% to 39.3%
Nats up 3.8% to 4%
Labor down 1.6% to 35.9%
Greens down 1.5% to 11.9%
Palmer down 0.5% to 0.8%
That’s a significant drop for the Greens, probably too big to be “noise”. Also a large relative drop for Palmer.
###Preferred PM
MT 61.9%
BS 38.1%
The results were basically the same among women and men.
Compare to the previous result
TA 42.1%
BS 57.9%
https://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/7-news-national-poll-15september2015
dv said:
Okay so the first full poll after the change is the Reachtel jobby. They aren’t the best but n>3000 so it should mean something.###2PP
50-50, which is a surprise. The previous result was 47-53.###First Prefs
Libs up 2.8% to 39.3%
Nats up 3.8% to 4%
Labor down 1.6% to 35.9%
Greens down 1.5% to 11.9%
Palmer down 0.5% to 0.8%That’s a significant drop for the Greens, probably too big to be “noise”. Also a large relative drop for Palmer.
###Preferred PM
MT 61.9%
BS 38.1%
The results were basically the same among women and men.Compare to the previous result
TA 42.1%
BS 57.9%https://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/7-news-national-poll-15september2015
without a truly conservative option the blue bloods will stay put… but MT does offer the centre leaning left voter an interesting alternative…
I’d really like to see the ultracons and RWNJ split off. MT doesn’t need that kind of lead in his saddlebag, being pestered by climate denialists and halal conspiracy theorists and people opposed to equal rights and assorted foilhatters.
In my head it plays out with Bernardi having a gutful of centrist politics but being unable to get any traction in his whiteanting of MT because they are doing so well in the polls. He leads a revolt and forms the Conservative Party: probably Abetz, Dutton and Abbott go with him, so might Hockey even though he’s not very conservative, but because he’s been dumped.
The Nats might side with the Conservatives. If that happens, the Libs would not have a majority in parliament and one way or another an early election would ensue. The new Libs would probably win this election and MT would have a bit of freedom to openly advocate rational policy.
If the revolt was not quite so successful and the Libs only lost a couple of senators, it would be piss easy to get some fresh DD triggers and clean house.
dv said:
I’d really like to see the ultracons and RWNJ split off. MT doesn’t need that kind of lead in his saddlebag, being pestered by climate denialists and halal conspiracy theorists and people opposed to equal rights and assorted foilhatters.In my head it plays out with Bernardi having a gutful of centrist politics but being unable to get any traction in his whiteanting of MT because they are doing so well in the polls. He leads a revolt and forms the Conservative Party: probably Abetz, Dutton and Abbott go with him, so might Hockey even though he’s not very conservative, but because he’s been dumped.
The Nats might side with the Conservatives. If that happens, the Libs would not have a majority in parliament and one way or another an early election would ensue. The new Libs would probably win this election and MT would have a bit of freedom to openly advocate rational policy.
If the revolt was not quite so successful and the Libs only lost a couple of senators, it would be piss easy to get some fresh DD triggers and clean house.
personally I’d like to see some of the same infighting the ALP suffered… it’s been like poison in the mouths of the ministers to be shown to be hypocrites but unfortunately the opposition can’t really give it to them in quite the same way without also looking like a bunch of peanuts
Labor party needs to do something like that. It is constrained by its union connections. Probably needs to collapse and reform with a new constitution.
dv said:
Labor party needs to do something like that. It is constrained by its union connections. Probably needs to collapse and reform with a new constitution.
agreed…
again, I think the system would work much better if I were Emperor
Not that I’m anti-union but it is ridiculous for a modern party to be controlled by factions dominated by specific unions, determining policy and preselecting their own hacks in the senate, completely out of whack with their importance in the modern universe.
So we’d have
Family First
Ultraconservative Bernadistas
Palmer United
Real Liberals
Social Democrats
Old Guard Homophobic Catholic Labor
Greens
dv said:
Not that I’m anti-union but it is ridiculous for a modern party to be controlled by factions dominated by specific unions, determining policy and preselecting their own hacks in the senate, completely out of whack with their importance in the modern universe.So we’d have
Family First
Ultraconservative Bernadistas
Palmer United
Real Liberals
Social Democrats
Old Guard Homophobic Catholic Labor
Greens
sounds like the making of a coalition
dv said:
Not that I’m anti-union but it is ridiculous for a modern party to be controlled by factions dominated by specific unions, determining policy and preselecting their own hacks in the senate, completely out of whack with their importance in the modern universe.So we’d have
Family First
Ultraconservative Bernadistas
Palmer United
Real Liberals
Social Democrats
Old Guard Homophobic Catholic Labor
Greens
Needs a Grumpy Cat Party. The ones that say “No” to everything.
dv said:
Labor party needs to do something like that. It is constrained by its union connections. Probably needs to collapse and reform with a new constitution.
——
cough
Yeah, let’s get rid of workers representatives…..
whacks DV around the ear
dv said:
Labor party needs to do something like that. It is constrained by its union connections. Probably needs to collapse and reform with a new constitution.
While it may appear this way to some, I doubt they are using their social sense in thinking so.
I have never been a member of a union and as far as I know, I’m in no way alone in this.
Not that I’m a died in the wool Labor voter but I doubt I’d ever allow the country to be run by the bosses. The point being that no country should force the people to become desperate. We can see this with the rest of the world and thus far Australia has been moderate, why? I’d say that it was because of the genuine people who have maintained the worlds longest governing socialist political party.
What we need to do now is realise that we have come the closest to the worst possible political scenario we have ever had and we should grow in the confidence of moderation in politics.
roughbarked said:
dv said:
Labor party needs to do something like that. It is constrained by its union connections. Probably needs to collapse and reform with a new constitution.
While it may appear this way to some, I doubt they are using their social sense in thinking so.
I have never been a member of a union and as far as I know, I’m in no way alone in this.
Not that I’m a died in the wool Labor voter but I doubt I’d ever allow the country to be run by the bosses. The point being that no country should force the people to become desperate. We can see this with the rest of the world and thus far Australia has been moderate, why? I’d say that it was because of the genuine people who have maintained the worlds longest governing socialist political party.
Being strapped to certain specific unions has made them socially conservative.
Roy Morgan have release their final Abbott era poll, collected last weekend. The last Morgan 2PP under the Abbott reign was 43-57 in the ALP’s favour.
Bludger track too have drawn a line under the Abbott era, realeasing a figure based on the last bunch of polls because the switch.
2PP
COALITION 46.1%
ALP 53.9%
Projected seat count
Coalition 56
ALP 89
OTHERS 5
Primary votes
Coalition 37.7 %
ALP 36.5%
Greens 14.5%
Palmer 1.4%
OTHERS 10.1%
dv said:
roughbarked said:
dv said:
Labor party needs to do something like that. It is constrained by its union connections. Probably needs to collapse and reform with a new constitution.
While it may appear this way to some, I doubt they are using their social sense in thinking so.
I have never been a member of a union and as far as I know, I’m in no way alone in this.
Not that I’m a died in the wool Labor voter but I doubt I’d ever allow the country to be run by the bosses. The point being that no country should force the people to become desperate. We can see this with the rest of the world and thus far Australia has been moderate, why? I’d say that it was because of the genuine people who have maintained the worlds longest governing socialist political party.
Being strapped to certain specific unions has made them socially conservative.
That’s up to them to fix.
dv said:
roughbarked said:
dv said:
Labor party needs to do something like that. It is constrained by its union connections. Probably needs to collapse and reform with a new constitution.
While it may appear this way to some, I doubt they are using their social sense in thinking so.
I have never been a member of a union and as far as I know, I’m in no way alone in this.
Not that I’m a died in the wool Labor voter but I doubt I’d ever allow the country to be run by the bosses. The point being that no country should force the people to become desperate. We can see this with the rest of the world and thus far Australia has been moderate, why? I’d say that it was because of the genuine people who have maintained the worlds longest governing socialist political party.
Being strapped to certain specific unions has made them socially conservative.
Got to admit, the Talcum bounce has been less than I anticipated. There has been a 4 or 5% shift in the national numbers, and the polls shifted abot 3% in Canning.
dv said:
Got to admit, the Talcum bounce has been less than I anticipated. There has been a 4 or 5% shift in the national numbers, and the polls shifted abot 3% in Canning.
They are really going to have to pull their socks up to fix the damage Abbott has done.
Could kepping Scott Morrison be Talcum’s first mistake?