We have often has discussions about global demography here. Global population growth reached a peak of 88 million per annum and has since declined to 77 million per annum. The age structure of the world’s population combined with near universal decreases in birth rates has led demographers to predict a continued decrease in population growth for the next 50 years at least.

However there will be wobbles and bumps along the way and I predict that we will see a big one in the next couple of years because of the ending of the one child policy in the PRC. In reality about 2/3 of the population got exemptions already, and many women have been irreversibly sterilised as a means of contraception, and a lot of couples only wanted one child etc but even if say 2% of Chinese women of childbearing have a child next year that would otherwise not have been born, that is an extra 3 million babies, so we might see population growth at > 80 million per year, temporarily, for the first time since 1996.

Apart from the one-off hit there will probably be an upward tick in projects in the long term, somewhere in the range of hundreds of thousands per year.

dv said:

We have often has discussions about global demography here. Global population growth reached a peak of 88 million per annum and has since declined to 77 million per annum. The age structure of the world’s population combined with near universal decreases in birth rates has led demographers to predict a continued decrease in population growth for the next 50 years at least.

However there will be wobbles and bumps along the way and I predict that we will see a big one in the next couple of years because of the ending of the one child policy in the PRC. In reality about 2/3 of the population got exemptions already, and many women have been irreversibly sterilised as a means of contraception, and a lot of couples only wanted one child etc but even if say 2% of Chinese women of childbearing have a child next year that would otherwise not have been born, that is an extra 3 million babies, so we might see population growth at > 80 million per year, temporarily, for the first time since 1996.

Apart from the one-off hit there will probably be an upward tick in projects in the long term, somewhere in the range of hundreds of thousands per year.

Yairs, one of the little known impediments to China’s rise is the ticking of the mother of all demographic bombs.

AwesomeO said:

dv said:

We have often has discussions about global demography here. Global population growth reached a peak of 88 million per annum and has since declined to 77 million per annum. The age structure of the world’s population combined with near universal decreases in birth rates has led demographers to predict a continued decrease in population growth for the next 50 years at least.

However there will be wobbles and bumps along the way and I predict that we will see a big one in the next couple of years because of the ending of the one child policy in the PRC. In reality about 2/3 of the population got exemptions already, and many women have been irreversibly sterilised as a means of contraception, and a lot of couples only wanted one child etc but even if say 2% of Chinese women of childbearing have a child next year that would otherwise not have been born, that is an extra 3 million babies, so we might see population growth at > 80 million per year, temporarily, for the first time since 1996.

Apart from the one-off hit there will probably be an upward tick in projects in the long term, somewhere in the range of hundreds of thousands per year.

Yairs, one of the little known impediments to China’s rise is the ticking of the mother of all demographic bombs.

Maybe they should do what Germany does and take in young refugees

• Yairs, one of the little known impediments to China’s rise is the ticking of the mother of all demographic bombs.

There is, I think, a Chinese match making TV show on SBS calling for Australian “contestants”…

I wonder if their Internet is filled with “Desperate Australian Women want to marry you NOW.” ads…

furious said:

• Yairs, one of the little known impediments to China’s rise is the ticking of the mother of all demographic bombs.

There is, I think, a Chinese match making TV show on SBS calling for Australian “contestants”…

I wonder if their Internet is filled with “Desperate Australian Women want to marry you NOW.” ads…

Yes, that is another consequence of the demographic bomb, with only one child allowed most couples made sure it was a male.

AwesomeO said:

Yairs, one of the little known impediments to China’s rise is the ticking of the mother of all demographic bombs.

China may never get as bad as Japan as mass immigration would be politically acceptable.

http://www.economist.com/node/17522568

Witty Rejoinder said:

AwesomeO said:

Yairs, one of the little known impediments to China’s rise is the ticking of the mother of all demographic bombs.

China may never get as bad as Japan as mass immigration would be politically acceptable.

http://www.economist.com/node/17522568

Against that is China is in some ways a restive Empire whilst Japan is homogenous.

Witty Rejoinder said:

AwesomeO said:

Yairs, one of the little known impediments to China’s rise is the ticking of the mother of all demographic bombs.

China may never get as bad as Japan as mass immigration would be politically acceptable.

http://www.economist.com/node/17522568

Quite. China is already a very ethnically diverse country.

AwesomeO said:

Witty Rejoinder said:

AwesomeO said:

Yairs, one of the little known impediments to China’s rise is the ticking of the mother of all demographic bombs.

China may never get as bad as Japan as mass immigration would be politically acceptable.

http://www.economist.com/node/17522568

Against that is China is in some ways a restive Empire whilst Japan is homogenous.

Nnnnnot really clear to me how that is against Awesome’s point

Japan and the politics of immigration:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7xdxIBNj2sw

Seems like you and Awesome are making the same point.

furious said:

• Yairs, one of the little known impediments to China’s rise is the ticking of the mother of all demographic bombs.

There is, I think, a Chinese match making TV show on SBS calling for Australian “contestants”…

I wonder if their Internet is filled with “Desperate Australian Women want to marry you NOW.” ads…

I heard something the other day that Chinese women were being encouraged to take several husbands in response to the severe inequality of genders. Hey, men having several wives works for Middle Eastern cultures and Mormons, and polyamory is an ever-increasing trend, so why not?

• I heard something the other day that Chinese women were being encouraged to take several husbands in response to the severe inequality of genders. Hey, men having several wives works for Middle Eastern cultures and Mormons, and polyamory is an ever-increasing trend, so why not?

“They” say that it is already a thing in the sticks…

> there will be wobbles and bumps along the way

One of them being the USA. Population growth in the USA was the first to radically decline, hitting a low point in the 1970s and then increasing again, lately seeming to settle down to a steady rate of growth. Other western countries are belatedly following suit, with reductions in population growth in countries like Spain and Australia reversing to increase again. Biggest current declines in population growth are in countries like India and Pakistan. Population growth in China and Russia remains low. Most of Africa remains a wildcard, mostly because censuses there are so unreliable that nobody knows what the population growth there is doing.