In 1924, restauranteur G.F. Brazier reported the following story to his local newspaper, the Silverton Appeal-Tribune.
In 1923, Brazier and his family including their dog Bobbie set off on a cross country drive starting from their home in Silverton, Oregon. While they were in Indiana, some 4000 km from home, their dog was chased off by some other dogs. The Braziers looked around but couldn’t find him, so they went on their journey.
Some six months later, early in 1924, the dog came back to them in Silverton, Oregon, emaciated and mangy, with cuts on his legs. He reported that his daughter, Nova, had first noticed that the dog had returned.
The newspaper printed the story and Bobbie became a famous dog, appearing in films and taking part in ceremonies, being given keys to various cities etc. The conclusion was that the dog had walked at least 4000 km, finding his way to the out of the way village of Silverton.
This version of events, that the dog did manage to achieve this, is reported uncritically in various official account, without any qualifying phrases or adverbs.
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There are a couple of relevant questions:
a) Is this remotely possible?
We can conceive of a dog being familiar enough with its local area to make its way back home from another suburb or neighbouring town. If the dog were regularly taken on a longer trip, then we could accept that the dog could remember various cues from the multiple iterations of the journey.
Or conceivably if there were a single highway or fairly direct route connecting the drop point to the home town, then the probability that the dog could make it back would become significant, even if the journey were 1000s of km.
But in this case the dog was supposedly in a place he’d never been before, and would have to make its way back via a complex path over 4000 km on minor arterial roads to the village of Silverton.
b) If we were to consider that it is according to Hoyle possible, given what we know about the behaviour of dogs and humans how does the probability that the dog achieved this compare to more prosaic explanations?
e.g.
- The dog was never lost. The whole thing was set up for a publicity stunt to draw traffic to a restaurant
- The dog was lost and the family found a stray, and perhaps with a wishful heart took it to be the missing dog.