TV news tonite that angry South Australian farmers have had a gut full of the weather bureaus forecasts over the preceeding month or so.I totally agree with their demise! The cockys are doing it hard enough as it is,without the boffins getting it wrong with monotonous regularity.This has been ongoing for years,when South Australia gets a big trough from the north west of Australia its any ones guess as to the amount of rain that will fall.At the moment farmers are trying to finish harvest,bale hay and a hundred other jobs without the guessing games played by the bureau.Then, to cap it all off,the resident idiot TV weather forecaster gives his/hers opinion thats not worth a bloody cracker!! For goodness sake,if you dont know,shut up and dont guess………Rant over………….AL

I kinda feel sorry for weather forecasters. A couple of weeks ago they predicted a storm that didn’t happen (and probably said “a possible storm”); they coped heaps of flak for being panic merchants and worry warts. This past week they’ve coped flak for not giving us enough warning, for not telling us how serious it would be.

Really, they can’t win. Unfortunately, weather prediction is a gamble at best.

I do agree however that opinions need to be kept out of it. Our local ABC radio does the breakfast weather (at least) by talking to whichever head honcho weather forecaster at BOM is on duty at the time. You get a much clearer picture than from a reading of an issued statement. And you hear the “maybe” “possible” “not likely, but you never knows” that don’t make the official statement.

a radio programme today on climate change had an expert who slammed the ‘computer modeling’ fashion. he’s probably right. if the data going into the modeling is suspect, the results will have the same consistency as an educated guess.

I just don’t take any notice if the forecast anymore……. rain wise that is.

Been getting a bit of rain here Lucky – not a lot though. You might see a bit from that,

colliewa said:

Been getting a bit of rain here Lucky – not a lot though. You might see a bit from that,

Oh hope so Collie:)

Quite a few of my farmer friends check with me about the weather. They call me and ask what does the weather look like on the radar?

Lucky1 said:

colliewa said:

Been getting a bit of rain here Lucky – not a lot though. You might see a bit from that,

Oh hope so Collie:)

so dry here that two thirds of the paddock is bare. normally we would get the paddock slashed at this time but its not worth it this year.

As an adjunct to my earlier post,the SA Farmers Federation will no longer be using the BOM for further forecasts,instead they will be using other individual companies to obtain relevant forecasting data.I spose if all else fails they can go outside with a piece of string.I’m sure you all know the results of that…..ie. if the strings wet…its raining……..if its dry …its not………etc etc………………..Ceep on Composting………AL

Pepe,i wouldnt go slashing the paddock yet,if it doesnt rain youll wind up with a dust bowl…………..al

al said:

Pepe,i wouldnt go slashing the paddock yet,if it doesnt rain youll wind up with a dust bowl…………..al

g’day al.
is the wind blowing out your way too?
ok – i wasn’t looking forward to mowing the shoulder height spindly grass that has grown anyway.

al said:

As an adjunct to my earlier post,the SA Farmers Federation will no longer be using the BOM for further forecasts,instead they will be using other individual companies to obtain relevant forecasting data.I spose if all else fails they can go outside with a piece of string.I’m sure you all know the results of that…..ie. if the strings wet…its raining……..if its dry …its not………etc etc………………..Ceep on Composting………AL

Once upon a time, I believe, people on the land used to be able to recognise and understand changes in weather patterns themselves, but with technological advances these skills have been lost in favour of more modern methods. The BOM can only tell you what is happening where, and the forecast is merely a probability based on years of accumulated data.

Bluegreen,I dont know if that is quite correct.Farmers, years gone by ,probably had things a little easier with weather patterns.Certainly I well remember 20 to 30 years ago that if there was a front from WA with rain, then SA would get that front three or four days later.I think we both agree that because of this vastly changing weather pattern, it is considerably harder to forecast,not that i am letting the BOM off the hook.With the amount of technology available they could surely do better than their current efforts……..AL

fair comment Al. Although even though they might have the technology, doesn’t mean they have the budget!

australia’s climate is very variable, and weather prediction is far less reliable than in more moderate climates. in poland i remember that temperature in any given season would not change by any more than five degrees in a day or two; here in melbourne the temperature drops 20 degrees in 15 minutes during a cold front in summer.

Australia.. weather.. seem synomous?
I left my house to go to Tasmania on the last day of 1990 it was 49 degrees here.. by the time I drove to Melbourne there was a hailstorm. Got on the boat and there were 5 to 8 metre swells so the boat was tippng nose down bum up bum down nose up all night. Being New Years Eve it was like pink swill all over the decks between waves. At Davenport the temperature was 8 degrees. Snow fell on Cradle mountain and we spent a few days huddled around a wood fired stove.

roughbarked said:

Australia.. weather.. seem synomous?
I left my house to go to Tasmania on the last day of 1990 it was 49 degrees here.. by the time I drove to Melbourne there was a hailstorm. Got on the boat and there were 5 to 8 metre swells so the boat was tippng nose down bum up bum down nose up all night. Being New Years Eve it was like pink swill all over the decks between waves. At Davenport the temperature was 8 degrees. Snow fell on Cradle mountain and we spent a few days huddled around a wood fired stove.

classic – i think you would remember that day.

cool thread. I am a big fan of the weather and after working outdoors for half my life and the other half spent growing up outside, I like to keep an eye on the weather locally and in a few places of interest around Aust.

I think BG is spot on, Cockies should spend less time relying on some BOM forecast and more time learning and observing their local conditions. I disagree with Al, the weather has not become more fickle, we now take more notice of subtle changes and some choose to place blame on these subtleties instead of accepting responsibility and learning. I have a family member who is a third generation farmer and he gets upset all the time re: yields and the weather yet he still buys a brand new work ute every second year and recently purchased a monster harvester at a monster price. I consider that I work reasonably hard for my wage yet I don’t have the capacity to make similar purchases, and I don’t get upset about it.

The Goyder line is irrelevant now, marginal farming lands are widespread and farmers just need to siuybgb.

And roughbarked, why haven’t your farmer friends bought a laptop? If they can call you to check the radar, then they can get online and check themselves… at best the 512k radar loop will give you rainfall for the next 4 hours. I wouldn’t have thought that was long enough for a farmer to plan his crops???

And again, BG you are right, the BOM’s computer models are only based on the history of data that is entered, the forecast is all about probability. If anyone can predict the weather better then the BOM, then they are in the wrong job. (unless they are saving lives, putting out fires or driving racing cars)

offers soapbox to the next in line

siuybgb.
+++++

??

(great post, by the way)

Dinetta said:

siuybgb.
+++++

??

(great post, by the way)

an old acronym from the old ABC fora of years gone past. Stands for Suck It Up Ya Big Girl’s Blouse. ahem

pain master said:

Dinetta said:

siuybgb.
+++++

??

(great post, by the way)

an old acronym from the old ABC fora of years gone past. Stands for Suck It Up Ya Big Girl’s Blouse. ahem

Fairy nuff…have never heard that one b4

:)

pain master said:

cool thread. I am a big fan of the weather and after working outdoors for half my life and the other half spent growing up outside, I like to keep an eye on the weather locally and in a few places of interest around Aust.

I think BG is spot on, Cockies should spend less time relying on some BOM forecast and more time learning and observing their local conditions. I disagree with Al, the weather has not become more fickle, we now take more notice of subtle changes and some choose to place blame on these subtleties instead of accepting responsibility and learning. I have a family member who is a third generation farmer and he gets upset all the time re: yields and the weather yet he still buys a brand new work ute every second year and recently purchased a monster harvester at a monster price. I consider that I work reasonably hard for my wage yet I don’t have the capacity to make similar purchases, and I don’t get upset about it.

The Goyder line is irrelevant now, marginal farming lands are widespread and farmers just need to siuybgb.

And roughbarked, why haven’t your farmer friends bought a laptop? If they can call you to check the radar, then they can get online and check themselves… at best the 512k radar loop will give you rainfall for the next 4 hours. I wouldn’t have thought that was long enough for a farmer to plan his crops???

And again, BG you are right, the BOM’s computer models are only based on the history of data that is entered, the forecast is all about probability. If anyone can predict the weather better then the BOM, then they are in the wrong job. (unless they are saving lives, putting out fires or driving racing cars)

offers soapbox to the next in line

pepe one reason they could be calling from in the cab of a tractor.

pain master said:

I think BG is spot on, Cockies should spend less time relying on some BOM forecast and more time learning and observing their local conditions.

When I was a kid we were often told that the local top end Aborigines predicted Cyclone Tracey. Not that it would necessarily wipe out Darwin, but that there would be a cyclone as big as Tracey somewhere in the region that year. They based that on the length of the stalks of the mangoes (apparently).

I know that there’s lots of other nature idicators, but I’m wondering how many of these we’ve stuffed/changed by our interference. Does our selective breeding of, say mangoes, affect their ability to “predict” cyclones?

Probably a moot point anyway, since the vast majority of us don’t know how to read the signs anyway.