Date: 27/05/2016 15:22:30
From: Cymek
ID: 897527
Subject: If the suns energy output dropped by 6%

I am watching an episode of Supernatural (why is irrelevant to the question)
Anyway the bad person has caused the Suns output to drop by 6%, what would actually happen in real life if this did occur, what sort of temperature drops could we expect ?

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Date: 27/05/2016 15:33:31
From: dv
ID: 897529
Subject: re: If the suns energy output dropped by 6%

Cymek said:


I am watching an episode of Supernatural (why is irrelevant to the question)
Anyway the bad person has caused the Suns output to drop by 6%, what would actually happen in real life if this did occur, what sort of temperature drops could we expect ?

There is an equilibrium between ice/liquidwater/watervapour that tends to ameliorate changes in solar input in the medium term. A 1% drop causes about a 1.3 K drop in temperature.
Does this mean a 6% drop would cause about an 8 K drop in temperature? I don’t know because a drop of that extent would, over the longer term, affect plant productivity and hence CO2 output and greenhouse effect equilibrium. Probably a matter that would need detailed modelling rather than back of the envelope calcs.

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Date: 27/05/2016 20:45:37
From: mollwollfumble
ID: 897784
Subject: re: If the suns energy output dropped by 6%

Cymek said:


I am watching an episode of Supernatural (why is irrelevant to the question)
Anyway the bad person has caused the Suns output to drop by 6%, what would actually happen in real life if this did occur, what sort of temperature drops could we expect ?

Um. That should be solvable from the energy balance radiation equation. Let’s suppose that the albedo remains the same, I’ll say why it doesn’t, later.

Energy in = energy out.
Energy out before Sun’s radiation drop is T1^4. Temperatures in Kelvin.
Energy out after Sun’s radiation drop is T2^4
Therefore T2^4/T1^4 = 100%-6% = 0.94
T2/T1 = 4th root of 0.94 = 0.98465
If T1 is, say, 16 degrees C = 289 K.
0.98465 * 289 = 284.56 K

Temperature drop (assuming albedo unchanged) is 289 – 284.56 = 4.44 degrees.
Which is a remarkably small temperature change.

Albedo changes because (short term) cloud cover is reduced and long term because of ice cap growth and vegetation changes.

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Date: 27/05/2016 22:21:21
From: Cymek
ID: 897866
Subject: re: If the suns energy output dropped by 6%

Thanks

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Date: 27/05/2016 22:22:05
From: dv
ID: 897869
Subject: re: If the suns energy output dropped by 6%

Don’t mention it.

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