http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/to-keep-the-blood-supply-safe-screening-blood-is-more-important-than-banning-donors/
To Keep The Blood Supply Safe, Screening Blood Is More Important Than Banning Donors
Since the shooting Sunday at Orlando LGBT nightclub Pulse, American LGBT activists have pointed out that many members of the community targeted by the shooter are still not allowed to donate blood that could help save victims.
The ban has a long history. In 1983, after scientists understood how HIV was spreading but had no test to find it, the Food and Drug Administration instituted a deferment on blood donations from men who had had sex with men since 1977. That eventually became a lifetime ban. The rule was only scaled back last December, when the FDA issued a revision. Now, men who have sex with men can donate blood — but only if they haven’t had sexual contact with another man for a year before the donation. That, along with the other questions donors must answer, depends on people being honest, which has its faults. But the FDA has said that even with its shortcomings, the ban is important because men who have sex with men are the demographic with the highest prevalence of HIV in the U.S.
It would be easy to assume that the lifetime ban has been successful at keeping HIV out of the blood supply. Today, the National Institutes of Health say the risk of a recipient contracting HIV through a transfusion of tainted blood is 1 in 2 million. And even that assessment overstates the risk because it is based on statistical calculations. The actual risk, as measured by incidence, is much, much lower. More than 15 million pints of donated blood are transfused into Americans each year. The last time anyone is known to have contracted HIV from blood donation was in 2008.
But this success — which has been duplicated in Canada — has little to do with donor bans and almost everything to do with blood screening, experts told me. Since 1985, every drop of donated blood has been tested for HIV. As the testing technology has improved, the incidence of transfusion-acquired HIV has plummeted, a fact that bolsters the argument of critics, who say it’s time to end a ban on blood donation that isn’t backed by the evidence.
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