It’s slowly becoming clear that core collapse supernovae blow up without any warnings. A recent study has shown that almost all supernova progenitors show no sign of variability right up to the time they explode. To make matters more difficult, the progenitor stars for core collapse supernovae come in all colours of the rainbow.
The to top it all off, some 15 to 30% of core collapse stars don’t go supernova at all, but instead quietly fade into a black hole.
That’s a summary of the start of https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.00022