http://www.space.com/34259-elon-musk-first-mars-colonists-prepared-die.html
1st Mars Colonists Should Be ‘Prepared to Die,’ Elon Musk Says
The first people who fly with SpaceX to Mars should be OK with the possibility that the decision could cost them their lives, company founder and CEO Elon Musk said.
SpaceX aims to ferry 1 million people to the Red Planet over the next 50 to 100 years using the Interplanetary Transport System (ITS), a rocket-spaceship combo that Musk unveiled Tuesday (Sept. 27) during a talk at the International Astronautical Congress (IAC) in Guadalajara, Mexico. (Well, he unveiled the ITS in concept; neither vehicle has been built yet.)
Musk painted a picture of a not-too-distant future in which 1,000 or more ITS spaceships, each loaded up with 100 or 200 settlers, zoom off toward Mars simultaneously from Earth orbit. But it’s naïve to expect that everything will work perfectly from the start, he said.
—-
http://www.space.com/34235-spacex-mars-plans-feasible-or-fantasy.html
“There’s no technical obstacle to the plan being executable,” space policy expert John Logsdon told Space.com. “SpaceX has good engineers. They don’t have to really invent much.”
Logsdon said he thinks the main obstacles to SpaceX’s Mars plans are money and time.
“The plan he is proposing on the timescale he is proposing seem to me to on the edge of fantasy,” Logsdon said. He noted that Musk is known for setting ambitious goals on tight time lines, saying, “That’s just Elon. That’s his style.”
In addition, Logsdon said that while Musk’s plan seemed to explain how humans would get to Mars, there was a significant gap in planning as to how those spacefarers would establish a colony on the Red Planet. Technologies and procedures for surviving on the surface of Mars are, at best, still in the early planning stages. Supporting such a huge influx of people will require food sources, an economic system and energy supplies, which Musk did not explain, Logsdon said.
“He got a little hand-wavy there,” Logsdon said.
Because of the huge amount of funding a plan like this will require, SpaceX can’t do it alone, Logsdon said. They’ll need significant sources of funding, and NASA will likely be one of those sources, he said. As a result, it’s very possible that NASA’s plans to send humans to Mars will converge with SpaceX’s plans, Logsdon added.