dv said:

As expected, 2016 was the hottest year on record, approximately 0.15 deg C hotter than 2015 on average, and approximately 1.3 deg C hotter than pre-industrial average.

“Countries agreed in Paris in 2015 to holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, recognizing that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change.”

It’s peaked.

Peak Warming Man said:

It’s peaked.

What if its peaks next year, then the year after that, then the year after that……

Tau.Neutrino said:

Peak Warming Man said:

It’s peaked.

What if its peaks next year, then the year after that, then the year after that……

We all go to Hell.

• What if its peaks next year, then the year after that, then the year after that……

Dave’s not here man…

Tau.Neutrino said:

Peak Warming Man said:

It’s peaked.

What if its peaks next year, then the year after that, then the year after that……

Then Mr Man will still be correct.

Tau.Neutrino said:

Peak Warming Man said:

It’s peaked.

What if its peaks next year, then the year after that, then the year after that……

That’s very unlikely.

We are likely to continue having short term peaks, interspersed with cooler years.

The problem is that both the peak temperatures and short-term minimum temperatures are increasing.

Woodie said:

Tau.Neutrino said:

Peak Warming Man said:

It’s peaked.

What if its peaks next year, then the year after that, then the year after that……

Then Mr Man will still be correct.

I don’t think he would be in that case.

We’ll have to wait for the next major El Nino for the next spike.
I expect it to slowly cool over the coming decades as the molten core cools and the nuclear breakdown of unstable elements within the earths crust starts to run down.

The Rev Dodgson said:

Woodie said:

Tau.Neutrino said:

What if its peaks next year, then the year after that, then the year after that……

Then Mr Man will still be correct.

I don’t think he would be in that case.

Mr Man says next year “It’s peaked” and he’ll be correct. I mean, you know, a Peak Warming Man should know his stuff.

Peak Warming Man said:

………… the nuclear breakdown of unstable elements within the earths crust starts to run down.

Exactly Mr man. This stuff only has a half life, and half a life ain’t very long.

Peak Warming Man said:

We’ll have to wait for the next major El Nino for the next spike.
I expect it to slowly cool over the coming decades as the molten core cools and the nuclear breakdown of unstable elements within the earths crust starts to run down.

ROFL

3/10
Unfortunately you went a bit too ridiculous to get many bites

Woodie said:

Peak Warming Man said:

………… the nuclear breakdown of unstable elements within the earths crust starts to run down.

Exactly Mr man. This stuff only has a half life, and half a life ain’t very long.

That’s right Woodie but I wanted to keep things simple for the lay punters.

Research has predicted a new solar ‘Maunder minimum’ in the 2030s, apparently.

Here’s the Old Bill patrolling the Thames last time it happened.

The resulting 2016 annual average global temperature anomaly is +0.50 deg. C, which is (a statistically insignificant) 0.02 deg. C warmer than 1998 at +0.48 deg. C. We estimate that 2016 would have had to be 0.10 C warmer than 1998 to be significantly different at the 95% confidence level. Both 2016 and 1998 were strong El Nino years

So what?

Coldest summer in Melbourne that I’ve ever experienced.

mollwollfumble said:

So what?

So anthropogenic climate change will cause hundreds of trillions of dollars in damage and lost opportunity, cost tens of millions of lives and be massively disruptive socially.

dv said:

mollwollfumble said:

So what?

So anthropogenic climate change will cause hundreds of trillions of dollars in damage and lost opportunity, cost tens of millions of lives and be massively disruptive socially.

You’re such a Debbie Downer.

mollwollfumble said:

So what?

Coldest summer in Melbourne that I’ve ever experienced.

What do you conclude from that.

Assuming your recollection is correct.

dv said:

mollwollfumble said:

So what?

So anthropogenic climate change will cause hundreds of trillions of dollars in damage and lost opportunity, cost tens of millions of lives and be massively disruptive socially.

What a fairytale

“So anthropogenic climate change will create hundreds of trillions of dollars in new money and gained opportunity, save tens of millions of lives and be massively disruptive socially.”

Fixed.

mollwollfumble said:

“So anthropogenic climate change will create hundreds of trillions of dollars in new money and gained opportunity, save tens of millions of lives and be massively disruptive socially.”

Fixed.

Why do you think that?

The Rev Dodgson said:

mollwollfumble said:

“So anthropogenic climate change will create hundreds of trillions of dollars in new money and gained opportunity, save tens of millions of lives and be massively disruptive socially.”

Fixed.

Why do you think that?

Because crops don’t like blizzards, for starters.

mollwollfumble said:

The Rev Dodgson said:

mollwollfumble said:

“So anthropogenic climate change will create hundreds of trillions of dollars in new money and gained opportunity, save tens of millions of lives and be massively disruptive socially.”

Fixed.

Why do you think that?

Because crops don’t like blizzards, for starters.

They aren’t too keen on searing droughts and bushfires either.

mollwollfumble said:

The Rev Dodgson said:

mollwollfumble said:

“So anthropogenic climate change will create hundreds of trillions of dollars in new money and gained opportunity, save tens of millions of lives and be massively disruptive socially.”

Fixed.

Why do you think that?

Because crops don’t like blizzards, for starters.

They aren’t too keen on searing droughts and bushfires either.

mollwollfumble said:

So what?

Coldest summer in Melbourne that I’ve ever experienced.

The winters around here are getting milder. We used to get a few heavy frosts per winter… have to break the ice on water troughs. Not any more. And now we’re in the middle of a very extended heat wave, broken slightly by some merely hot weather..
…but that’s just more anecdote.

Yesterday’s NSW County Hour was discussing how farmers were adapting to climate change. (Usually when CC is discussed you get a few contrary old timers texting in and saying, “It’s not happening. I remember back in ’54 it was bad….”. Not yesterday.) They talked about how cropping zones and timing of planting were already changing… some horticulture is moving southward and/or using greenhouses. More diversification of crops… you just need to follow the money.

Here is an older paper on the projected impacts of climate changes on agriculture.

Here is the an example sort of thing NSW DPI is now doing to assist farmers -

Managing climate variability: the key to success

I think climate variability in our region is a big issue.

It’s a big part of these farms – whether they’re successful or not could depend on how they manage the variable climate that we’re in.

Mother nature is moving the pieces on the chessboard, and we need to react. If I see rain coming, I need to think what this means for the clients, and the advice will be completely different depending on their situation. And with climate change, the variability is increasing.

Rob Holmes – Moree

Here’s some climate variability for ya

The_observer said:

Here’s some climate variability for ya

Broken image, try this.

Confirmation from NASA and NOAA.

https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-noaa-data-show-2016-warmest-year-on-record-globally

dv said:

Confirmation from NASA and NOAA.

https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-noaa-data-show-2016-warmest-year-on-record-globally

Malcolm says NO!

dv said:

Confirmation from NASA and NOAA.

https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-noaa-data-show-2016-warmest-year-on-record-globally

The NASA GISS dataset has the global temperature of 2016 at 0.99 +/- 0.1°C compared to 0.87 +/- 0.1°C for 2015, a difference of 0.12°C. However, NASA’s Gavin Schmidt said that their estimate of the boost to global temperatures given by the El Nino in 2016 was 0.12°C, that is the difference between 2015 and 2016.

However, Peter Stott, Acting Director of the Met Office Hadley Centre said, “A particularly strong El Nino event contributed about 0.2°C to the annual average for 2016.” This means that without the El Nino 2016 would have had a global temperature of about 0.57+/- 0.1°C which is the same as 2014 and within the errors of 2010 (0.56) and 2005 (0.54).

There must be zero tolerance for climate bullshit.

Ian said:

There must be zero tolerance for climate bullshit.

Very poignant, but true.

And the beat goes on -

New study confirms NOAA finding of faster global warming

Let’s take a step back and discuss the science. Measuring the temperature of the Earth is hard. There are many locations to measure and many choices to make. Should we measure the temperature of the ground? Of the ocean waters? How deep in the water? If we measure air temperatures, what height should the measurements be taken? How many locations should we make measurements at? What happens if the instruments change over time or if the location changes? What happens if a city grows near a measurement location and the so-called urban heat-island effect grows? How do we estimate the temperatures in areas where no measurements exist?
…

Ocean temperatures can be measured by ship-based temperature sensors, by special floating measuring instruments, or by satellites. Prior to the advent of satellites and floating sensors, ships were the main temperature sensing platforms. Ship sensors, which measure engine intake water, are known to be slightly warmer than the actual water. So using them introduces a warm bias in the measurements.

Also, as ships have gotten larger, the depth of the engine intakes have increased – meaning the tested water was further from the actual ocean surface…

After applying their tests, the authors found that the results promoted by Karl at NOAA are the best, and other groups, in particular the Hadley Centre in the UK and the Japanese agency, are too cold…

Finally, and for those who read my posts regularly, I am sounding like a broken record. Global warming is happening, it never stopped, it never paused, and the models have gotten it right.