Angry Summer 2016/17: Climate Change Super-Charging Extreme Weather

Australians endured another intense summer, with more than 200 record-breaking extreme weather events driven by climate change, the Climate Council’s latest report has found.

The “Angry Summer 2016/17: Climate Change Supercharging Extreme Weather” report shows summer temperatures soared to unprecedented new heights, with capital cities such as Sydney experiencing its hottest summer on record.

KEY FINDINGS
1. The Australian summer of 2016/17 marked the return of the Angry Summer with record-breaking heat especially in the east of the nation. The Angry Summer was characterised by intense heatwaves, hot days and bushfires in central and eastern Australia, while heavy rainfall and flooding affected the west of the country. Noteworthy records from this summer include:

In just 90 days, more than 205 records were broken around Australia. The state-wide mean temperature in summer was the hottest for New South Wales since records began, with temperatures 2.57°C above average. Sydney had its hottest summer on record with a mean temperature 2.8°C above average. Brisbane had its hottest summer on record in terms of mean temperature at 26.8°C, equivalent to 1.7°C above average. Canberra had its hottest summer on record in terms of daytime temperatures and recorded temperatures of at least 35°C on 18 days, already far higher than what is projected for 2030 (12 days). Adelaide experienced its hottest Christmas day in 70 years at 41.3°C. Moree in regional New South Wales experienced 54 consecutive days of temperatures 35°C or above, a record for the state. Perth had its highest summer total rainfall on record of 192.8 mm.

2. Climate change is driving hotter, longer lasting and more frequent heatwaves.

The 2016/17 extreme summer heat in New South Wales was at least 50 times more likely to occur due to climate change. Protecting Australians from the impacts of summers with relentless extreme heat requires the uptake of cheap, clean and efficient renewable energy and the phasing out fossil fuels. Commissioning new fossil fuel (coal, oil and gas) projects is incompatible with limiting the dangerous impacts of climate change, such as the failure of critical infrastructure.

3. Escalating extreme weather is putting Australia’s ageing energy system under intense pressure.

Australia’s energy system is ageing, inefficient and polluting, and during the Angry Summer proved unable to cope with escalating extreme weather, like heatwaves. Days of extreme heat and heatwaves will become even more frequent and severe in Australia, and will increase the risks to critical infrastructure (e.g. electricity), the economy, health and ecosystems.

4. The costs of the extreme heat are clear with reduced work productivity, increasing risk of bushfires and escalating damage to the Great Barrier Reef.

The impacts of the last Angry Summer of 2013/14 cost the Australian economy approximately $8 billion through absenteeism and a reduction in work productivity. The economic impact from the 2016/17 Angry Summer has not yet been quantified. Above-average sea surface temperatures this summer have triggered a new bleaching outbreak on the Great Barrier Reef. This follows the worst mass bleaching event in the reef’s history in 2016. Extreme fire weather is increasing in Australia’s southeast. During the most severe heatwave of this recent Australian summer, nearly 100 bushfires were ignited and raged through parts of inland New South Wales.

https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/angry-summer-report

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I wonder why they didn’t mention this in their list of extremes.

“Yesterday Perth had it’s coldest ever February day (since 1910) with temperatures only making it up to 17.4C. This is not just 0.1 or 0.2C below the previous coldest record in February, but a whole 1.7C colder.”

Probably just an oversight and they’ll correct it in their next release.

Peak Warming Man said:

I wonder why they didn’t mention this in their list of extremes.

“Yesterday Perth had it’s coldest ever February day (since 1910) with temperatures only making it up to 17.4C. This is not just 0.1 or 0.2C below the previous coldest record in February, but a whole 1.7C colder.”

Probably just an oversight and they’ll correct it in their next release.

Well with 205 broken records I suppose they had to leave lots of them out.

But certainly the increased variation in extremes may well prove to be just as significant as the overall increase in the average temps.

>Angry Summer

that’s angry the same way as humans are angry proliferators of their own, and angry consumers of fossil fuels

it has certainly been a bit different weatherwise this summer. i still have a green lawn that requires mowing. unheard of in March.

I put in a bid to do research on this as part of my work for CSIRO. Two other organisations put in bids and we lost out.

I have a history in extreme weather prediction going back to the 1980s. My specialties were hail damage prediction and wind driven rain, while my colleagues dealt with extreme winds and flooding. It’s bloody difficult to predict extreme weather because 100 to 150 years of climate records in Australia (similar overseas) is nowhere near long enough to get reliable statistics on 1 in 100 year, 1 in 200 year and 1 in 500 year events. So we have to be subtle. By use of some advanced mathematics, including finding that two different types of extreme weather (thunderstorms and cyclones) follow different extreme statistics and using mathematical modelling to simulate the tracks of nonexistent tropical cyclones, my colleagues were able to develop reliable statistics for extreme events on the assumption that the climate doesn’t change.

That was the situation up until the early 1990s. Climate prediction models, which are just glorified weather prediction models, were nowhere near good enough to look at the prediction of extreme events when the climate does change.

By the late 2000s, when we put in our bid to evaluate the effect of climate change on extreme weather, climate prediction models had reduced the magnitude of error of extreme event predictions with climate change to four times the error in the magnitude of error of extreme event predictions with no climate change. This is when dire warnings started appearing in the press. Let me explain the origin of these “dire warnings” using mathematics.

With no climate change, let the amount of extreme weather be X, with standard deviation dX. With climate change, let the amount of extreme weather be Y, with standard deviation dY. Now dY = 4 * dX, as I’ve said before. From the global climate models with climate change, Y – X happens to also be about the same size as dX. ie. a predicted small increase in the amount of extreme weather.

The press was spinning this off as “climate change could cause extreme weather to increase by more than 5 * dX”, which comes from the real predicted increase of dX plus the standard deviation due to inaccuracy of the mathematical model of dY = 4 * dX. This gives a totally false impression, feeding fears. It would be equally correct, equally false, to say “climate change could cause extreme weather to decrease by more than 3 * dX”, but of course this never made it it press – not lurid enough.

Even setting aside the broad conclusion (very concerning if true) that:

“The 2016/17 extreme summer heat in New South Wales was at least 50 times more likely to occur due to climate change.”

- the raw figures for the number of records broken during the summer, and especially facts like the worst mass bleaching event on Great Barrier Reef ever recorded and the number of bushfires burning simultaneously in NSW and Victoria, are particularly worrying and lend support to the final statement:

“Australia needs to contribute to the accelerating global transition to cheap, clean, renewable energy needed to stabilise the climate and protect Australia from worsening extreme weather.”

Ian said:

Even setting aside the broad conclusion (very concerning if true) that:

“The 2016/17 extreme summer heat in New South Wales was at least 50 times more likely to occur due to climate change.”

- the raw figures for the number of records broken during the summer, and especially facts like the worst mass bleaching event on Great Barrier Reef ever recorded and the number of bushfires burning simultaneously in NSW and Victoria, are particularly worrying and lend support to the final statement:

“Australia needs to contribute to the accelerating global transition to cheap, clean, renewable energy needed to stabilise the climate and protect Australia from worsening extreme weather.”

Preaching to the converted works for those who are converted.

Nothing says that the climate is changing like a tropical cyclone(Hurricane Lee) about to hit Canada in the next 12 hours.