I’ve been discussing with Rev whether the late 1990s were a time when the age of the oldest living person was high.

The GERONTOLOGY RESEARCH GROUP’s graphs back that up, though really if you delete Calment and Knauss it wouldn’t be a trend.

If you take a look at their graphs of the 10th, 25th, 50th, there’s a pretty solid upward trend, albeit with a bit of jaggedness.

117 has been a really hard number to hit, it seems. Four people lived past that age during the 1990s, but between 2000 and 2015, there were no people aged 117 and over.
The drought was broken when Emma Morano reached 117 in November 2016, and Violet Brown this year.

dv said:

117 has been a really hard number to hit, it seems. Four people lived past that age during the 1990s, but between 2000 and 2015, there were no people aged 117 and over.
The drought was broken when Emma Morano reached 117 in November 2016, and Violet Brown this year.

Pardon, I should have said Misao Okawa broke the drought in 2015.

Note that there is a subset of bona fide supercentenarians that won’t appear in the GRG records because they don’t have the documentation.

The spike in the top graph of a little over 122 was a French woman named Jeanne Calment, who was born on 21 Feb 1875 and died on 4 Aug 1997, aged 122 years, 164 days. She’s the longest-lived person (verifiably) in history. Just in case you were wondering.

btm said:

The spike in the top graph of a little over 122 was a French woman named Jeanne Calment, who was born on 21 Feb 1875 and died on 4 Aug 1997, aged 122 years, 164 days. She’s the longest-lived person (verifiably) in history. Just in case you were wondering.

I mentioned her in my OP.

dv said:

btm said:

The spike in the top graph of a little over 122 was a French woman named Jeanne Calment, who was born on 21 Feb 1875 and died on 4 Aug 1997, aged 122 years, 164 days. She’s the longest-lived person (verifiably) in history. Just in case you were wondering.

I mentioned her in my OP.

Sorry, I missed that.

dv said:

I’ve been discussing with Rev whether the late 1990s were a time when the age of the oldest living person was high.

The GERONTOLOGY RESEARCH GROUP’s graphs back that up, though really if you delete Calment and Knauss it wouldn’t be a trend.

If you take a look at their graphs of the 10th, 25th, 50th, there’s a pretty solid upward trend, albeit with a bit of jaggedness.

117 has been a really hard number to hit, it seems. Four people lived past that age during the 1990s, but between 2000 and 2015, there were no people aged 117 and over.
The drought was broken when Emma Morano reached 117 in November 2016, and Violet Brown this year.

50th is still spikier than I expected, but it does look like even very old people are still living longer.

I wonder how much longer that will continue, but I doubt I’ll find out.

Also interesting that the gap from 25-50 is almost as big as 10-25.

The Rev Dodgson said:

dv said:

I’ve been discussing with Rev whether the late 1990s were a time when the age of the oldest living person was high.

The GERONTOLOGY RESEARCH GROUP’s graphs back that up, though really if you delete Calment and Knauss it wouldn’t be a trend.

If you take a look at their graphs of the 10th, 25th, 50th, there’s a pretty solid upward trend, albeit with a bit of jaggedness.

117 has been a really hard number to hit, it seems. Four people lived past that age during the 1990s, but between 2000 and 2015, there were no people aged 117 and over.
The drought was broken when Emma Morano reached 117 in November 2016, and Violet Brown this year.

50th is still spikier than I expected, but it does look like even very old people are still living longer.

I wonder how much longer that will continue, but I doubt I’ll find out.

It will depend partly on medical developments. A bit hard to predict.
On the basis of these charts, the rate of increase doesn’t seem to be slowing. Steady on about a 10% gradient.

dv said:

Steady on about a 10% gradient.

So anyone less than 10 will live for ever?

The Rev Dodgson said:

dv said:

Steady on about a 10% gradient.

So anyone less than 10 will live for ever?

That does not follow…

If we take the expected “age of oldest person” right now to be 117, and it increases at a 10% rate, A = (y – 2017)*0.1 + 117. The age of someone aged 5 now, for instance, is B = y – 2012. I expect those lines to intersect in 2141, when the expected age of oldest person is 129.

Of course, I am not saying I predict that that linear trend will continue.

dv said:

The Rev Dodgson said:

dv said:

Steady on about a 10% gradient.

So anyone less than 10 will live for ever?

That does not follow…

If we take the expected “age of oldest person” right now to be 117, and it increases at a 10% rate, A = (y – 2017)*0.1 + 117. The age of someone aged 5 now, for instance, is B = y – 2012. I expect those lines to intersect in 2141, when the expected age of oldest person is 129.

Of course, I am not saying I predict that that linear trend will continue.

You are of course quite right in both respects :)

http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2017/05/02/146-year-old-indonesian-man-dies

Speedy said:

http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2017/05/02/146-year-old-indonesian-man-dies

no

dv said:

Speedy said:

http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2017/05/02/146-year-old-indonesian-man-dies

no

—-

I agree but I have no evidence other than to suggest this man had the same name as his father in documents.

tauto said:

dv said:

Speedy said:

http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2017/05/02/146-year-old-indonesian-man-dies

no

—-

I agree but I have no evidence other than to suggest this man had the same name as his father in documents.

He doesn’t have birth documents. What he has is a recent ID card with that date on it.

There was zero reporting of him until 2014. Nothing, not a blip anywhere. You would reckon someone over 140 would be newsworthy.

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/news/breakingnews/30294185

tauto said:

dv said:

Speedy said:

http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2017/05/02/146-year-old-indonesian-man-dies

no

—-

I agree but I have no evidence other than to suggest this man had the same name as his father in documents.

Makes sense.

Speedy said:

tauto said:

dv said:

no

—-

I agree but I have no evidence other than to suggest this man had the same name as his father in documents.

Makes sense.

—-

Probably the grandfather.

His living grandchildren look like they are in their 50s.

dv said:

His living grandchildren look like they are in their 50s.

—-

Check out Yitta Schwartz, she made 93 but had over 1000 descendants before she died.

tauto said:

dv said:

His living grandchildren look like they are in their 50s.

—-

Check out Yitta Schwartz, she made 93 but had over 1000 descendants before she died.

Think she would have played her part at least 50 years earlier.

For lunch today I cut a pawpaw lengthways in half, scooped out the seeds and filled the cavity with freshly squeezed orange juice and then just a light sprinkle of sugar.
As a lunch it was frugal but life lengthening goodness, amino acids, fructose, citric acid, anti oxidants and fibre.

Peak Warming Man said:

For lunch today I cut a pawpaw lengthways in half, scooped out the seeds and filled the cavity with freshly squeezed orange juice and then just a light sprinkle of sugar.
As a lunch it was frugal but life lengthening goodness, amino acids, fructose, citric acid, anti oxidants and fibre.

Rodger.

Peak Warming Man said:

For lunch today I cut a pawpaw lengthways in half, scooped out the seeds and filled the cavity with freshly squeezed orange juice and then just a light sprinkle of sugar.
As a lunch it was frugal but life lengthening goodness, amino acids, fructose, citric acid, anti oxidants and fibre.

Do you believe this will give you a long life?

dv said:

Peak Warming Man said:

For lunch today I cut a pawpaw lengthways in half, scooped out the seeds and filled the cavity with freshly squeezed orange juice and then just a light sprinkle of sugar.
As a lunch it was frugal but life lengthening goodness, amino acids, fructose, citric acid, anti oxidants and fibre.

Do you believe this will give you a long life?

I do.

I’d rather not die at all, to be frank. Seems needlessly tragic.

But it’s the way of these things.

Bubblecar said:

I’d rather not die at all, to be frank. Seems needlessly tragic.

But it’s the way of these things.

RIP Rooster

I wonder how well an Immortality Party would do in today’s politics. A firm pledge to spend billions on research into preventing death.

As an opposition party its criticisms of government would be predictable but utterly damning:

“Every Australian alive today is doomed to die, but this government just doesn’t care.”

> I’ve been discussing with Rev whether the late 1990s were a time when the age of the oldest living person was high. The GERONTOLOGY RESEARCH GROUP’s graphs back that up, though really if you delete Calment and Knauss it wouldn’t be a trend.

I see what you mean about Calment and Knauss.

Three things immediately come to mind.
1: Increase in world population.
2: Uncertainty in accuracy of birth record of oldest person.
3: Increasing percentage of people with reliable birth records.

Beyond a certain age, the probability of survival one more year increases exceeding rapidly, far more rapidly than can be explained by the normal distribution.

mollwollfumble said:

> I’ve been discussing with Rev whether the late 1990s were a time when the age of the oldest living person was high. The GERONTOLOGY RESEARCH GROUP’s graphs back that up, though really if you delete Calment and Knauss it wouldn’t be a trend.

I see what you mean about Calment and Knauss.

Three things immediately come to mind.
1: Increase in world population.
2: Uncertainty in accuracy of birth record of oldest person.
3: Increasing percentage of people with reliable birth records.

Beyond a certain age, the probability of survival one more year increases exceeding rapidly, far more rapidly than can be explained by the normal distribution.

Fair

speaking of a taste for spectral analysis of fair unbiased media, from our former hosts

“List of top 50 websites visited by Australians shows they want ‘shorter, not longer’ content”

“A new list shows Australians are keen for a bargain, have an unsurprising interest in real estate, and mainly find their news on social media.”

dv said:

mollwollfumble said:

> I’ve been discussing with Rev whether the late 1990s were a time when the age of the oldest living person was high. The GERONTOLOGY RESEARCH GROUP’s graphs back that up, though really if you delete Calment and Knauss it wouldn’t be a trend.

I see what you mean about Calment and Knauss.

Three things immediately come to mind.
1: Increase in world population.
2: Uncertainty in accuracy of birth record of oldest person.
3: Increasing percentage of people with reliable birth records.

Beyond a certain age, the probability of survival one more year increases exceeding rapidly, far more rapidly than can be explained by the normal distribution.

Fair

Oops, decreases exceedingly rapidly

SCIENCE said:

speaking of a taste for spectral analysis of fair unbiased media, from our former hosts

“List of top 50 websites visited by Australians shows they want ‘shorter, not longer’ content”

“A new list shows Australians are keen for a bargain, have an unsurprising interest in real estate, and mainly find their news on social media.”

Wrong thread?

Perhaps you are getting on a bit…

mollwollfumble said:

dv said:

mollwollfumble said:

> I’ve been discussing with Rev whether the late 1990s were a time when the age of the oldest living person was high. The GERONTOLOGY RESEARCH GROUP’s graphs back that up, though really if you delete Calment and Knauss it wouldn’t be a trend.

I see what you mean about Calment and Knauss.

Three things immediately come to mind.
1: Increase in world population.
2: Uncertainty in accuracy of birth record of oldest person.
3: Increasing percentage of people with reliable birth records.

Beyond a certain age, the probability of survival one more year increases exceeding rapidly, far more rapidly than can be explained by the normal distribution.

Fair

Oops, decreases exceedingly rapidly

OTOH it would be surprising, given the improvements in medicine, if there had been no bona fide increase in survivorship rates for supercentenary folks over the past 50 years.

As an aside, some countries birth or identification records have been found to be unreliable as people altered ages to avoid drafts and conscriptions.

AwesomeO said:

As an aside, some countries birth or identification records have been found to be unreliable as people altered ages to avoid drafts and conscriptions.

Other more stout-hearted folks altered their ages so that they could enlist.

dv said:

AwesomeO said:

As an aside, some countries birth or identification records have been found to be unreliable as people altered ages to avoid drafts and conscriptions.

Other more stout-hearted folks altered their ages so that they could enlist.

The countries most effected were those with unpopular governments and not in an existential crisis.

I rather missed the news that Lucille Randon died three months ago, just shy of her 119th birthday. Maria Branyas, some three years younger, is now the oldest person.

dv said:

I rather missed the news that Lucille Randon died three months ago, just shy of her 119th birthday. Maria Branyas, some three years younger, is now the oldest person.

Lucile as a child.

Living to her age would give me another 55 years. I’d need to lose nearly half my mass quite soon to have any fighting chance of that.

Bubblecar said:

dv said:

I rather missed the news that Lucille Randon died three months ago, just shy of her 119th birthday. Maria Branyas, some three years younger, is now the oldest person.

Lucile as a child.

Living to her age would give me another 55 years. I’d need to lose nearly half my mass quite soon to have any fighting chance of that.

Better transition to a woman as well :)

But seriously, start working on the weight loss.

You know it makes sense.