Date: 15/08/2017 13:28:32
From: The_observer
ID: 1103485
Subject: Crystal Balls

The 2015 UK General Election saw pollsters fail miserably to get anywhere close to predicting the right result,
many political commentators and followers had already begun to lose faith in polling.
By D-Day 2016 the result seemed too close to call, though slightly in favour of Remain. Even this cautious guess was wrong.

Leave won by four percentage points and pollsters had got the result wrong again.
.

The spotlight was once again on polling companies who failed to predict that Donald Trump would claim the White House.
Before Election Day, they were showing a sustained but narrowing lead for Hillary Clinton.
Based on an average of the last five polls published on RealClearPolitics, showed Clinton leading with three percentage points over Trump.
American statistics and polling analysis site FiveThirtyEight gave Trump a 30 per cent chance of victory going into the final few days.
This chance – the same as winning at rock, paper, scissors – was generous compared to other forecasters.

Trump went on to win thirty of the fifty states.

.
Polls presently have the yes vote for legalising gay marriage in Australia at 2 to 1 in favour

Reply Quote

Date: 15/08/2017 13:51:09
From: The_observer
ID: 1103503
Subject: re: Crystal Balls

August 5, 2017

Dr Chris Middleton a former senior Australian Medical Association official has lashed out at the peak medical body’s campaign for same-sex marriage, accusing it of using false and misleading information in claiming the reform was a public health issue.
Dr Middleton said the AMA provided “feeble” evidence for its assertion that legalising same-sex marriage would improve the health of gay people and give them better access to healthcare.
“The evidence quoted in their statement is far too weak to support the claims. One of these claims used the Sydney Morning Herald (as its evidence). This is a medical body making a serious politically persuasive claim based on an article in a newspaper,” he said.

Dr Chris Middleton, a former president of the Tasmanian AMA, has joined with five AMA members in penning a 15-page report savaging the credibility of the national body’s Position Statement on Marriage Equality.

Dr Middleton, who was inducted in the AMA Roll of Fellows in 2011, renounced his life membership of the body and was critical of its process to adopt a position in favour of gay marriage, saying the membership was not consulted. (That would be because the board has been taken over by left leaning practitioners, like so many other institutions)

The gastroenterologist, who does not support same-sex marriage, expects hundreds of doctors to join the renegade group in opposing the AMA’s position. Dr Middleton’s report will be sent to federal MPs this weekend. . (apparently the number of AMA members supporting this report has risen to about 400)

“The position statement has very little to say about medicine and was little more than a politically motivated, ideologically-driven opinion piece which is dressed up as evidence-based health policy,” Dr Middleton said.

“The AMA speaks with great authority and because of that I am so disappointed.

“In other position statements they have gone into it in a detailed way, there has been a rigorous dispassionate, careful, sober and professional analysis of all of the arguments for and against and usually what you get is a very thoughtful outcome.”

Dr Middleton’s report was scathing of the AMA for its “demonstrably false” claim that children raised by gay parents do not suffer poorer psychological health than children who are raised by their biological mother and father.

The report also said the AMA defended this claim by refusing to acknowledge peer-reviewed research which countered its position.

“Decades of research have confirmed that children do best, on average, when raised by their married biological mother and father,” the report said.

“By denying publicly that there is any such evidence of detriment to children, while admitting privately that there is, the AMA has misled the public on a crucial aspect of the marriage debate and must be held to account.”

Dr Middleton said yesterday the AMA “suppressed evidence” that didn’t suit its position.

“You would never be able to get away with this is medical literature, leaving out critical references because those references don’t suit your narrative,” he said.

Dr Middleton said the AMA also provided “feeble” evidence for its assertion that legalising same-sex marriage would improve the health of gay people and give them better access to healthcare.

“The evidence quoted in their statement is far too weak to support the claims. One of these claims used the Sydney Morning Herald (as its evidence). This is a medical body making a serious politically persuasive claim based on an article in a newspaper,” he said.

====================================================

Hmmmm, pretty serious stuff.

I wonder if it could have much influence on the election result?

Reply Quote

Date: 15/08/2017 14:32:10
From: transition
ID: 1103540
Subject: re: Crystal Balls

perhaps you could simplify the entire thing

ask

– should heterosexuals monopolize marriage?

i’d like to hear your arguments

Reply Quote

Date: 15/08/2017 14:33:57
From: Tamb
ID: 1103541
Subject: re: Crystal Balls

transition said:


perhaps you could simplify the entire thing

ask

– should heterosexuals monopolize marriage?

i’d like to hear your arguments

Ban all marriage. Problem solved.

Reply Quote

Date: 15/08/2017 14:40:11
From: transition
ID: 1103542
Subject: re: Crystal Balls

where are you observer

talk to me.

i’m getting lonely

Reply Quote

Date: 15/08/2017 14:44:18
From: The_observer
ID: 1103543
Subject: re: Crystal Balls

transition said:


perhaps you could simplify the entire thing

ask

– should heterosexuals monopolize marriage?

i’d like to hear your arguments

I’m not arguing either way in this thread trans.

I make the point that polls are often wrong.

I pointed out an issue involving the AMA & its members & posed the question, would that have anyinfluence on the voting public.

Howz your dog?

Reply Quote

Date: 15/08/2017 14:46:36
From: The_observer
ID: 1103544
Subject: re: Crystal Balls

transition said:


where are you observer

talk to me.

i’m getting lonely

sorry, but I’m not a lonely person & I cannot devote too much time to you laying comfortably on my couch, although you seem a wonderful person.

Reply Quote

Date: 15/08/2017 14:48:26
From: transition
ID: 1103545
Subject: re: Crystal Balls

The_observer said:


transition said:

perhaps you could simplify the entire thing

ask

– should heterosexuals monopolize marriage?

i’d like to hear your arguments

I’m not arguing either way in this thread trans.

I make the point that polls are often wrong.

I pointed out an issue involving the AMA & its members & posed the question, would that have anyinfluence on the voting public.

Howz your dog?

Larry’s well. He’s watching parliament, later i’ll ask him what today was all about.

Reply Quote

Date: 15/08/2017 14:51:08
From: transition
ID: 1103546
Subject: re: Crystal Balls

The_observer said:


transition said:

where are you observer

talk to me.

i’m getting lonely

sorry, but I’m not a lonely person & I cannot devote too much time to you laying comfortably on my couch, although you seem a wonderful person.

that’s a bit depressing, no cuddles.

Reply Quote

Date: 15/08/2017 14:51:17
From: The_observer
ID: 1103547
Subject: re: Crystal Balls

transition said:


The_observer said:

transition said:

perhaps you could simplify the entire thing

ask

– should heterosexuals monopolize marriage?

i’d like to hear your arguments

I’m not arguing either way in this thread trans.

I make the point that polls are often wrong.

I pointed out an issue involving the AMA & its members & posed the question, would that have anyinfluence on the voting public.

Howz your dog?

Larry’s well. He’s watching parliament, later i’ll ask him what today was all about.

It’s great that Larry & you can talk.

Perhaps one day you’ll be married?

Reply Quote

Date: 15/08/2017 14:52:52
From: The_observer
ID: 1103548
Subject: re: Crystal Balls

transition said:


The_observer said:

transition said:

where are you observer

talk to me.

i’m getting lonely

sorry, but I’m not a lonely person & I cannot devote too much time to you laying comfortably on my couch, although you seem a wonderful person.

that’s a bit depressing, no cuddles.

OH, ok, just a non sexual cuddle. cuddle, hug, slap on the back.

There, better?

Reply Quote

Date: 15/08/2017 14:55:25
From: transition
ID: 1103549
Subject: re: Crystal Balls

The_observer said:


transition said:

The_observer said:

I’m not arguing either way in this thread trans.

I make the point that polls are often wrong.

I pointed out an issue involving the AMA & its members & posed the question, would that have anyinfluence on the voting public.

Howz your dog?

Larry’s well. He’s watching parliament, later i’ll ask him what today was all about.

It’s great that Larry & you can talk.

Perhaps one day you’ll be married?

he’d have to be interested, it’s not something i’ve discussed with him, to be honest.

Reply Quote

Date: 15/08/2017 14:55:25
From: furious
ID: 1103550
Subject: re: Crystal Balls

Like cycling buddies…

Reply Quote

Date: 15/08/2017 14:56:26
From: transition
ID: 1103551
Subject: re: Crystal Balls

The_observer said:


transition said:

The_observer said:

sorry, but I’m not a lonely person & I cannot devote too much time to you laying comfortably on my couch, although you seem a wonderful person.

that’s a bit depressing, no cuddles.

OH, ok, just a non sexual cuddle. cuddle, hug, slap on the back.

There, better?

yeah thanks. Gave me the lift I needed.

Reply Quote

Date: 15/08/2017 14:57:16
From: The_observer
ID: 1103552
Subject: re: Crystal Balls

transition said:


The_observer said:

transition said:

Larry’s well. He’s watching parliament, later i’ll ask him what today was all about.

It’s great that Larry & you can talk.

Perhaps one day you’ll be married?

he’d have to be interested, it’s not something i’ve discussed with him, to be honest.

what, no cuddles?

Reply Quote

Date: 15/08/2017 14:57:35
From: The_observer
ID: 1103553
Subject: re: Crystal Balls

transition said:


The_observer said:

transition said:

that’s a bit depressing, no cuddles.

OH, ok, just a non sexual cuddle. cuddle, hug, slap on the back.

There, better?

yeah thanks. Gave me the lift I needed.

I’m here to please

Reply Quote

Date: 15/08/2017 14:58:59
From: Tau.Neutrino
ID: 1103555
Subject: re: Crystal Balls

Drone Kills Kim.

Reply Quote

Date: 15/08/2017 14:59:30
From: The_observer
ID: 1103556
Subject: re: Crystal Balls

Tau.Neutrino said:


Drone Kills Kim.

what about Cath?

Reply Quote

Date: 15/08/2017 15:01:12
From: Tau.Neutrino
ID: 1103558
Subject: re: Crystal Balls

The_observer said:


Tau.Neutrino said:

Drone Kills Kim.

what about Cath?

Cath will be the one operating the drone.

Reply Quote

Date: 15/08/2017 15:01:13
From: furious
ID: 1103559
Subject: re: Crystal Balls

She was the drone…

Reply Quote

Date: 15/08/2017 15:03:42
From: transition
ID: 1103560
Subject: re: Crystal Balls

The_observer said:


transition said:

The_observer said:

It’s great that Larry & you can talk.

Perhaps one day you’ll be married?

he’d have to be interested, it’s not something i’ve discussed with him, to be honest.

what, no cuddles?

he’s got terrible bad breath, that tests the luv sometimes, especially when he’s anxious and panting (thunder, or possibility of). Puts a bit of a dampener on the pillow talk.

Reply Quote

Date: 15/08/2017 15:27:35
From: dv
ID: 1103565
Subject: re: Crystal Balls

To quantify this somewhat, there were 12 Brexit polls in the last week of the campaign. 8 of the polls had Remain in front, 3 had Leave in front, and 1 had them tied. The average result was a 2.2% lead for Remain. The actual result was a 3.8% win for Leave, so the polling miss was 6%.

Compare this to the 30 to 40% lead that “Yes” currently enjoys in the polling for marriage equality.

OTOH:
1) this is a voluntary postal vote. The voluntary nature of the plebiscite increases the uncertainty of the outcome.
2) Antony Green’s analysis suggests that turnout for voluntary postal votes is much lower among young people than among the elderly and middle-aged.
http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2017/08/participation-rates-at-australian-voluntary-postal-ballot-elections.html#more
3) There was a very short lead time, with enrollments closing 13 days after the announcement. If you’re not on the rolls by 24 August, you can’t participate in this ballot. This will probably mean a number of younger people will not be enrolled in time.
4) The ballot will end in November. A lot can happen in three months. The campaign has yet to begin in earnest so who knows whether the No case will be able to win support.

So from here it does not appear to be a slam dunk for the Yes case.

Reply Quote

Date: 16/08/2017 17:15:55
From: stan101
ID: 1104163
Subject: re: Crystal Balls

I’m okay with whoever wants to be who.. No issues there.

What does puzzle me is why the yes group are so keen to have the word marriage used to define their union. Correct me if I am wrong but I thought marriage was a christian word for man and woman union. The same christians who find same sex unions as abhorent.

Why would same sex couples want to be associated with a word used by those who which to alienate them?

Reply Quote

Date: 16/08/2017 17:20:14
From: The_observer
ID: 1104166
Subject: re: Crystal Balls

stan101 said:


I’m okay with whoever wants to be who.. No issues there.

What does puzzle me is why the yes group are so keen to have the word marriage used to define their union. Correct me if I am wrong but I thought marriage was a christian word for man and woman union. The same christians who find same sex unions as abhorent.

Why would same sex couples want to be associated with a word used by those who which to alienate them?

you make an interesting point

Reply Quote

Date: 16/08/2017 17:34:41
From: Bubblecar
ID: 1104167
Subject: re: Crystal Balls

stan101 said:


I’m okay with whoever wants to be who.. No issues there.

What does puzzle me is why the yes group are so keen to have the word marriage used to define their union. Correct me if I am wrong but I thought marriage was a christian word for man and woman union. The same christians who find same sex unions as abhorent.

Why would same sex couples want to be associated with a word used by those who which to alienate them?

Marriage is not a “Christian” word. It derives ultimately from the Latin maritatus, past participle of maritatre “to wed, marry, give in marriage”.

http://www.etymonline.com/index.php?term=marriage

The term “marriage” is favoured so as to confer the same legal and social status on what would in every respect be the same kind of union as existing marriages, but opened up to consenting adults of any sex.

Reply Quote

Date: 16/08/2017 17:40:47
From: Cymek
ID: 1104168
Subject: re: Crystal Balls

Bubblecar said:


stan101 said:

I’m okay with whoever wants to be who.. No issues there.

What does puzzle me is why the yes group are so keen to have the word marriage used to define their union. Correct me if I am wrong but I thought marriage was a christian word for man and woman union. The same christians who find same sex unions as abhorent.

Why would same sex couples want to be associated with a word used by those who which to alienate them?

Marriage is not a “Christian” word. It derives ultimately from the Latin maritatus, past participle of maritatre “to wed, marry, give in marriage”.

http://www.etymonline.com/index.php?term=marriage

The term “marriage” is favoured so as to confer the same legal and social status on what would in every respect be the same kind of union as existing marriages, but opened up to consenting adults of any sex.

Gay marriage will eventually get passed as law then we have to work on sex robots and human marriages and then lesbots and gaybots wanting to get married

Reply Quote

Date: 16/08/2017 17:52:19
From: Tau.Neutrino
ID: 1104170
Subject: re: Crystal Balls

Cymek said:


Bubblecar said:

stan101 said:

I’m okay with whoever wants to be who.. No issues there.

What does puzzle me is why the yes group are so keen to have the word marriage used to define their union. Correct me if I am wrong but I thought marriage was a christian word for man and woman union. The same christians who find same sex unions as abhorent.

Why would same sex couples want to be associated with a word used by those who which to alienate them?

Marriage is not a “Christian” word. It derives ultimately from the Latin maritatus, past participle of maritatre “to wed, marry, give in marriage”.

http://www.etymonline.com/index.php?term=marriage

The term “marriage” is favoured so as to confer the same legal and social status on what would in every respect be the same kind of union as existing marriages, but opened up to consenting adults of any sex.

Gay marriage will eventually get passed as law then we have to work on sex robots and human marriages and then lesbots and gaybots wanting to get married

Cyborgs will probably want to get married, not robots.

Reply Quote

Date: 16/08/2017 17:54:31
From: The_observer
ID: 1104172
Subject: re: Crystal Balls

Tau.Neutrino said:


Cymek said:

Bubblecar said:

Marriage is not a “Christian” word. It derives ultimately from the Latin maritatus, past participle of maritatre “to wed, marry, give in marriage”.

http://www.etymonline.com/index.php?term=marriage

The term “marriage” is favoured so as to confer the same legal and social status on what would in every respect be the same kind of union as existing marriages, but opened up to consenting adults of any sex.

Gay marriage will eventually get passed as law then we have to work on sex robots and human marriages and then lesbots and gaybots wanting to get married

Cyborgs will probably want to get married, not robots.

There will be no gay marriage under the sharia law caliphate I lead!

Reply Quote

Date: 16/08/2017 17:57:00
From: roughbarked
ID: 1104173
Subject: re: Crystal Balls

What does any of this have to do with crystal balls?

Reply Quote

Date: 16/08/2017 17:58:08
From: roughbarked
ID: 1104174
Subject: re: Crystal Balls

The_observer said:


Tau.Neutrino said:

Cymek said:

Gay marriage will eventually get passed as law then we have to work on sex robots and human marriages and then lesbots and gaybots wanting to get married

Cyborgs will probably want to get married, not robots.

There will be no gay marriage under the sharia law caliphate I lead!

Since more than half of married Australians divorce, there cannot be much that is gay about marriage.

Reply Quote

Date: 16/08/2017 17:58:39
From: The_observer
ID: 1104175
Subject: re: Crystal Balls

roughbarked said:


What does any of this have to do with crystal balls?

Polls

Reply Quote

Date: 16/08/2017 18:01:46
From: Peak Warming Man
ID: 1104176
Subject: re: Crystal Balls

Cold roast beef and salad washed down with a popular cola.
Over.

Reply Quote

Date: 16/08/2017 18:02:09
From: roughbarked
ID: 1104177
Subject: re: Crystal Balls

The_observer said:


roughbarked said:

What does any of this have to do with crystal balls?

Polls

No idea.

Reply Quote

Date: 16/08/2017 18:03:09
From: The_observer
ID: 1104178
Subject: re: Crystal Balls

Peak Warming Man said:


Cold roast beef and salad washed down with a popular cola.
Over.

is that the menu at you gay wedding reception?

Reply Quote

Date: 16/08/2017 21:55:42
From: roughbarked
ID: 1104314
Subject: re: Crystal Balls

roughbarked said:


The_observer said:

roughbarked said:

What does any of this have to do with crystal balls?

Polls

No idea.

I’ve had a think about it and not everybody who may want to get married, has balls crystal or otherwise.
As far as it goes if being married means legal status, then marriage means that you don’t trust that your chosen partner will remain true to you.

Reply Quote

Date: 17/08/2017 17:19:42
From: stan101
ID: 1104579
Subject: re: Crystal Balls

Bubblecar said:

Marriage is not a “Christian” word. It derives ultimately from the Latin maritatus, past participle of maritatre “to wed, marry, give in marriage”.

http://www.etymonline.com/index.php?term=marriage

The term “marriage” is favoured so as to confer the same legal and social status on what would in every respect be the same kind of union as existing marriages, but opened up to consenting adults of any sex.

Thanks, the searches Idid came up with Man – Woman references to marriage. Also some christian references noted similar.

I still find it strange that same sex couples wouldn’t want a new “modern’ term. But it doesn’t affect me so more power to them.

Reply Quote

Date: 17/08/2017 17:38:39
From: dv
ID: 1104584
Subject: re: Crystal Balls

stan101 said:


Bubblecar said:

Marriage is not a “Christian” word. It derives ultimately from the Latin maritatus, past participle of maritatre “to wed, marry, give in marriage”.

http://www.etymonline.com/index.php?term=marriage

The term “marriage” is favoured so as to confer the same legal and social status on what would in every respect be the same kind of union as existing marriages, but opened up to consenting adults of any sex.

Thanks, the searches Idid came up with Man – Woman references to marriage. Also some christian references noted similar.

I still find it strange that same sex couples wouldn’t want a new “modern’ term. But it doesn’t affect me so more power to them.

I mean there is nothing particularly modern about monogamous same sex defacto marriages.

Reply Quote

Date: 17/08/2017 17:58:40
From: JudgeMental
ID: 1104601
Subject: re: Crystal Balls

Reply Quote

Date: 18/08/2017 19:37:43
From: stan101
ID: 1105431
Subject: re: Crystal Balls

dv said:

I mean there is nothing particularly modern about monogamous same sex defacto marriages.

Maybe not modern per se. It certainly hasn’t been what you call common in the last several generations. Wasn’t Oscar Wilde, as just one example, persecuted for his orientation. Mainstream society have only recently come on board with the concept again in the last 20 years or so.

Reply Quote

Date: 18/08/2017 19:39:38
From: dv
ID: 1105433
Subject: re: Crystal Balls

stan101 said:


dv said:

I mean there is nothing particularly modern about monogamous same sex defacto marriages.

Maybe not modern per se. It certainly hasn’t been what you call common in the last several generations. Wasn’t Oscar Wilde, as just one example, persecuted for his orientation. Mainstream society have only recently come on board with the concept again in the last 20 years or so.

Well yes but they’ve still existed, clandestinely, for millennia.

Reply Quote

Date: 18/08/2017 19:42:42
From: Witty Rejoinder
ID: 1105435
Subject: re: Crystal Balls

stan101 said:


dv said:

I mean there is nothing particularly modern about monogamous same sex defacto marriages.

Maybe not modern per se. It certainly hasn’t been what you call common in the last several generations. Wasn’t Oscar Wilde, as just one example, persecuted for his orientation. Mainstream society have only recently come on board with the concept again in the last 20 years or so.

Homosexuality, like other even minor crimes was probably punishable by death in the UK only 200 years ago.

Reply Quote

Date: 18/08/2017 19:44:41
From: monkey skipper
ID: 1105437
Subject: re: Crystal Balls

Witty Rejoinder said:


stan101 said:

dv said:

I mean there is nothing particularly modern about monogamous same sex defacto marriages.

Maybe not modern per se. It certainly hasn’t been what you call common in the last several generations. Wasn’t Oscar Wilde, as just one example, persecuted for his orientation. Mainstream society have only recently come on board with the concept again in the last 20 years or so.

Homosexuality, like other even minor crimes was probably punishable by death in the UK only 200 years ago.

didn’t the Greek paint pictures of fun on vacation while on battle campaigns? there was social acceptance at that times one guesses

Reply Quote