Date: 11/11/2017 00:45:59
From: dv
ID: 1146393
Subject: Identical Ancestors Point

The identical ancestors point is the most recent point in history in which all existing humans were ancestors of everyone alive today. The IAP is, necessarily, quite some time before the time when the Most Recent Common Ancestor existed, and also quite some time after the time when Mitrochondrial Eve and Y-Chromosomal Adam lived.

Models based on realistic migration and interbreeding assumptions tend to produce quite recent IAPs.

This paper by Douglas L. T. Rohde of MIT estimates the mostly likely range for the IAP is 5000 to 15000 years. http://tedlab.mit.edu/~dr/Papers/Rohde-MRCA-two.pdf

At first blush this appears counter-intuitive since the amount of phenotypic variation between humans as we see them now appears to be much greater than could have occurred in 5 to 15 ky. Putting it simply, the racial diversity on Earth can’t have come into existence in such a brief time, and there’s palaeontological and archaeological evidence to suggest that the major racial differences existed more than 25000 years ago.

So how can it be that, for instance, a Han Chinese person, an Aboriginal person from the Kimberley area, and a Khoisan person from the Kalahari desert, could all have the same set of ancestors only a few thousand years back?

The answer is that although a modern individual is descended from all people alive at the IAP, not all of those IAP folk make the same contribution, and the specific genes they “donate” will differ from one modern person to another.

To explain by example: let’s take the middle estimate of 10000 years to the IAP. Suppose that there were 5 million people alive 10000 years ago.

The Han Chinese person above had two parents, four grandparents and so on. Going back 10000 years takes us back 400 generations. If I were to draw his family tree back to that generation, I would find 2 to the power of 10000 places in the tree. That is, about 3 times 10^120, or 3000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000, about three thousand billion billion billion billion billion billion billion billion billion billion billion billion billion. You get the point, a ridiculously large number. In reality, the people alive at the IAP would be different numbers of generations separated from this modern person, but that does not change the overall argument.

Each of the four million people alive must occupy a very large number of places in the Han Chinese person’s tree: trillions of trillions of places. But some of those people occupy many more places than others. Although, on average, each of them occupies one 4000000th of his ancestry, some of them might hold a 100000th, some of them more like 100000000th. You would probably find that almost all of the Han Chinese person’s IAP ancestry came from East Asian people, with only small contributions from Europeans, Australians, Khoisans etc.

In summary, a fairly recent Identical Ancestors Point is compatible with much more ancient racial differences.

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Date: 11/11/2017 10:00:27
From: dv
ID: 1146463
Subject: re: Identical Ancestors Point

I’ve misrepresented the IAP a bit but it doesn’t change the overall analysis. I said in my lede above that ALL the humans alive at the IAP are ancestors and that’s not correct. Some of the people alive at the IAP have no living descendents.

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Date: 11/11/2017 10:02:03
From: roughbarked
ID: 1146467
Subject: re: Identical Ancestors Point

dv said:

I’ve misrepresented the IAP a bit but it doesn’t change the overall analysis. I said in my lede above that ALL the humans alive at the IAP are ancestors and that’s not correct. Some of the people alive at the IAP have no living descendents.

How long did it take you to work that out?

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Date: 11/11/2017 10:03:08
From: dv
ID: 1146469
Subject: re: Identical Ancestors Point

roughbarked said:


dv said:
I’ve misrepresented the IAP a bit but it doesn’t change the overall analysis. I said in my lede above that ALL the humans alive at the IAP are ancestors and that’s not correct. Some of the people alive at the IAP have no living descendents.

How long did it take you to work that out?

It’s more a matter of whether or not to complicate the issue by introducing that point.

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Date: 11/11/2017 10:05:54
From: roughbarked
ID: 1146471
Subject: re: Identical Ancestors Point

dv said:


roughbarked said:

dv said:
I’ve misrepresented the IAP a bit but it doesn’t change the overall analysis. I said in my lede above that ALL the humans alive at the IAP are ancestors and that’s not correct. Some of the people alive at the IAP have no living descendents.

How long did it take you to work that out?

It’s more a matter of whether or not to complicate the issue by introducing that point.

What issue doesn’t have complications?

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Date: 11/11/2017 10:06:11
From: Peak Warming Man
ID: 1146472
Subject: re: Identical Ancestors Point

I just read the first paragraph in the OP.
There’s a lot in there to digest and understand before moving on.

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Date: 11/11/2017 11:49:07
From: The Rev Dodgson
ID: 1146585
Subject: re: Identical Ancestors Point

I’m pretty sceptical about this (if I understand what it is saying correctly).

If we take a random individual from some isolated group 5000 years ago (say Tasmanian aborigines), even if that individual has descendants living now, I don’t see how they could realistically be an ancestor to everyone in the World today, including everyone in equally remote communities, say in the Amazon.

Even 10 or 15 thousand years seems to be stretching things.

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Date: 11/11/2017 11:53:40
From: roughbarked
ID: 1146588
Subject: re: Identical Ancestors Point

The Rev Dodgson said:


I’m pretty sceptical about this (if I understand what it is saying correctly).

If we take a random individual from some isolated group 5000 years ago (say Tasmanian aborigines), even if that individual has descendants living now, I don’t see how they could realistically be an ancestor to everyone in the World today, including everyone in equally remote communities, say in the Amazon.

Even 10 or 15 thousand years seems to be stretching things.

Even by discounting if available, DNA and mitochondria?

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Date: 11/11/2017 12:03:01
From: dv
ID: 1146592
Subject: re: Identical Ancestors Point

The Rev Dodgson said:


I’m pretty sceptical about this (if I understand what it is saying correctly).

If we take a random individual from some isolated group 5000 years ago (say Tasmanian aborigines), even if that individual has descendants living now, I don’t see how they could realistically be an ancestor to everyone in the World today, including everyone in equally remote communities, say in the Amazon.

Even 10 or 15 thousand years seems to be stretching things.

Well, please do read the paper and make specific criticisms. It is one thing to say that something is counter-intuitive but if you are serious you’ll find a flaw in the reasoning. The assumptions they’ve made are modest and they’ve tried a range of different migration and interbreeding parameters, which is why there is such a range in the estimates. 400 generations is a long time, you can travel a long way, you can have a lot of opportunities for contact.
There’s necessarily uncertainty but I’ve never seen a report that had much greater estimates than these.
Here is one from Yale that estimates IAP at 2000 BC to 5300 BC.
http://www.stat.yale.edu/~jtc5/251/readings/ancestors/common-ancestors-talk.pdf

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Date: 11/11/2017 12:04:19
From: roughbarked
ID: 1146593
Subject: re: Identical Ancestors Point

dv said:

The Rev Dodgson said:


I’m pretty sceptical about this (if I understand what it is saying correctly).

If we take a random individual from some isolated group 5000 years ago (say Tasmanian aborigines), even if that individual has descendants living now, I don’t see how they could realistically be an ancestor to everyone in the World today, including everyone in equally remote communities, say in the Amazon.

Even 10 or 15 thousand years seems to be stretching things.

Well, please do read the paper and make specific criticisms. It is one thing to say that something is counter-intuitive but if you are serious you’ll find a flaw in the reasoning. The assumptions they’ve made are modest and they’ve tried a range of different migration and interbreeding parameters, which is why there is such a range in the estimates. 400 generations is a long time, you can travel a long way, you can have a lot of opportunities for contact.
There’s necessarily uncertainty but I’ve never seen a report that had much greater estimates than these.
Here is one from Yale that estimates IAP at 2000 BC to 5300 BC.
http://www.stat.yale.edu/~jtc5/251/readings/ancestors/common-ancestors-talk.pdf

thanks.

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Date: 11/11/2017 16:17:13
From: PermeateFree
ID: 1146806
Subject: re: Identical Ancestors Point

dv said:

The Rev Dodgson said:


I’m pretty sceptical about this (if I understand what it is saying correctly).

If we take a random individual from some isolated group 5000 years ago (say Tasmanian aborigines), even if that individual has descendants living now, I don’t see how they could realistically be an ancestor to everyone in the World today, including everyone in equally remote communities, say in the Amazon.

Even 10 or 15 thousand years seems to be stretching things.

Well, please do read the paper and make specific criticisms. It is one thing to say that something is counter-intuitive but if you are serious you’ll find a flaw in the reasoning. The assumptions they’ve made are modest and they’ve tried a range of different migration and interbreeding parameters, which is why there is such a range in the estimates. 400 generations is a long time, you can travel a long way, you can have a lot of opportunities for contact.
There’s necessarily uncertainty but I’ve never seen a report that had much greater estimates than these.
Here is one from Yale that estimates IAP at 2000 BC to 5300 BC.
http://www.stat.yale.edu/~jtc5/251/readings/ancestors/common-ancestors-talk.pdf

It is a little difficult to believe that peoples with no contact with the outside world in excess of 15 thousand years could have a common ancestor, which means these peoples ancestors must date back further than that period. So what peoples have existed isolation for in excess of 15 thousand years

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Date: 11/11/2017 16:18:53
From: mollwollfumble
ID: 1146807
Subject: re: Identical Ancestors Point

> The identical ancestors point is the most recent point in history in which all existing humans were ancestors of everyone alive today

Haven’t read paper yet. But there can’t be any such thing. All it takes to wipe out the IAP is for one person to have no descendents.

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Date: 11/11/2017 17:10:19
From: The Rev Dodgson
ID: 1146820
Subject: re: Identical Ancestors Point

mollwollfumble said:


> The identical ancestors point is the most recent point in history in which all existing humans were ancestors of everyone alive today

Haven’t read paper yet. But there can’t be any such thing. All it takes to wipe out the IAP is for one person to have no descendents.

Don’t need to read the paper. dv answered that point in the thread.

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