https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/nov/22/renewables-will-drive-steep-decline-in-wholesale-electricity-price-in-australia-report?CMP=soc_567

Exclusive: Frontier Economics’ modelling commissioned by government says 6,000MW of renewable capacity entering market will reduce prices in 2018-20

Modelling commissioned by the Turnbull government as part of its efforts to back in the national energy guarantee says renewables will drive the first wave of price reductions under the policy. It also floats substantial regulatory intervention to stop the electricity market becoming even more concentrated.

The work by Frontier Economics, obtained by Guardian Australia, says a steep decline in wholesale electricity prices forecast between 2018 and 2022 is due to the entry of 6,000MW of renewable capacity which has already been incentivised by the existing renewable energy target.

It also acknowledges that the policy, which imposes new reliability and emissions reduction guarantees on energy retailers and large energy users from 2020, could also lead to further market concentration in states like South Australia.

There you are then.

dv said:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/nov/22/renewables-will-drive-steep-decline-in-wholesale-electricity-price-in-australia-report?CMP=soc_567

Exclusive: Frontier Economics’ modelling commissioned by government says 6,000MW of renewable capacity entering market will reduce prices in 2018-20

Modelling commissioned by the Turnbull government as part of its efforts to back in the national energy guarantee says renewables will drive the first wave of price reductions under the policy. It also floats substantial regulatory intervention to stop the electricity market becoming even more concentrated.

The work by Frontier Economics, obtained by Guardian Australia, says a steep decline in wholesale electricity prices forecast between 2018 and 2022 is due to the entry of 6,000MW of renewable capacity which has already been incentivised by the existing renewable energy target.

It also acknowledges that the policy, which imposes new reliability and emissions reduction guarantees on energy retailers and large energy users from 2020, could also lead to further market concentration in states like South Australia.

But, but, i thought renewables were the cause of higher prices???

“The work by Frontier Economics, obtained by Guardian Australia, says a steep decline in wholesale electricity prices forecast between 2018 and 2022 is due to the entry of 6,000MW of renewable capacity which has already been incentivised by the existing renewable energy target.

It also acknowledges that the policy, which imposes new reliability and emissions reduction guarantees on energy retailers and large energy users from 2020, could also lead to further m”

Well until 2020, the issue is, that solar and wind generators can make energy very cheaply and sell it very cheaply, undercutting coal and gas, no question at all. But when the sun stops and the wind drops they shrug shoulders.

So the coal and gas suppliers have both a dwindling base of subscribers whilst maintaining an existing infrastructure so they put costs up.

Cost increases lead to wealthier people putting in solar, poorer people and people renting cop the cost of subsidising the power for those who can opt out when the wind drops and the the weather is cloudy.

AwesomeO said:

“The work by Frontier Economics, obtained by Guardian Australia, says a steep decline in wholesale electricity prices forecast between 2018 and 2022 is due to the entry of 6,000MW of renewable capacity which has already been incentivised by the existing renewable energy target.

It also acknowledges that the policy, which imposes new reliability and emissions reduction guarantees on energy retailers and large energy users from 2020, could also lead to further m”

Well until 2020, the issue is, that solar and wind generators can make energy very cheaply and sell it very cheaply, undercutting coal and gas, no question at all. But when the sun stops and the wind drops they shrug shoulders.

So the coal and gas suppliers have both a dwindling base of subscribers whilst maintaining an existing infrastructure so they put costs up.

Cost increases lead to wealthier people putting in solar, poorer people and people renting cop the cost of subsidising the power for those who can opt out when the wind drops and the the weather is cloudy.

There will be power stations running on methane from decomposing cattle manure. I hear there is an inexhaustible supply of bullshit in Canberra.

party_pants said:

AwesomeO said:

“The work by Frontier Economics, obtained by Guardian Australia, says a steep decline in wholesale electricity prices forecast between 2018 and 2022 is due to the entry of 6,000MW of renewable capacity which has already been incentivised by the existing renewable energy target.

It also acknowledges that the policy, which imposes new reliability and emissions reduction guarantees on energy retailers and large energy users from 2020, could also lead to further m”

Well until 2020, the issue is, that solar and wind generators can make energy very cheaply and sell it very cheaply, undercutting coal and gas, no question at all. But when the sun stops and the wind drops they shrug shoulders.

So the coal and gas suppliers have both a dwindling base of subscribers whilst maintaining an existing infrastructure so they put costs up.

Cost increases lead to wealthier people putting in solar, poorer people and people renting cop the cost of subsidising the power for those who can opt out when the wind drops and the the weather is cloudy.

There will be power stations running on methane from decomposing cattle manure. I hear there is an inexhaustible supply of bullshit in Canberra.

Plus with the interconnects all up the east coast and into SA the wind and sun will be happening somewhere within that footprint, except at night of course. Plus wind and sun will need storage of some description, which is also talked about. Even with solar panels i think you still pay the supply part of the bill, not sure. And you need to be connected to the grid unless you have batteries. Or a more expensive inverter that can work without grid voltage.

AwesomeO said:

Well until 2020, the issue is, that solar and wind generators can make energy very cheaply and sell it very cheaply, undercutting coal and gas, no question at all. But when the sun stops and the wind drops they shrug shoulders.

It all depends on how widespread poor conditions for solar and wind are. It’s very unlikely that there will be no sun and no wind across the entire country.

Witty Rejoinder said:

AwesomeO said:

Well until 2020, the issue is, that solar and wind generators can make energy very cheaply and sell it very cheaply, undercutting coal and gas, no question at all. But when the sun stops and the wind drops they shrug shoulders.

It all depends on how widespread poor conditions for solar and wind are. It’s very unlikely that there will be no sun and no wind across the entire country.

Not confident. I can see a situation where better off will opt out and take advantage of Tesla type battery walls and manage their own energy, possibly with a Honda generator in the shed.

Because the return in investment in coal generation is below other investments no bastard will bother leaving the government with a problem of unreliable power for everyone else, so the government will get into subsiding power walls and Honda generators, or a couple of coal or gas plants. No government of any description in Australia, sitting on shedloads of energy can tolerate having people without affordable reliable power.

Witty Rejoinder said:

AwesomeO said:

Well until 2020, the issue is, that solar and wind generators can make energy very cheaply and sell it very cheaply, undercutting coal and gas, no question at all. But when the sun stops and the wind drops they shrug shoulders.

It all depends on how widespread poor conditions for solar and wind are. It’s very unlikely that there will be no sun and no wind across the entire country.

https://www.aemo.com.au/Electricity/National-Electricity-Market-NEM/Planning-and-forecasting/Interactive-maps-and-dashboards

all sorts of info on the interactive maps.

dv said:

The work by Frontier Economics, obtained by Guardian Australia, says a steep decline in wholesale electricity prices forecast between 2018 and 2022 is due to the entry of 6,000MW of renewable capacity which has already been incentivised by the existing renewable energy target.

AAAAARGGHHH…. That word…… “incentivised”

It’s all a lot of nonsense.

It’s a desperate attempt by the Turnbull government to divert attention cf. Paul Keating suggesting that the flag be changed. They don’t really mean it – they know who’s buttering their bread for them.

Anyway, once Tony’s back in charge, the fossil-fuel lobby will really be pulling some of the strings, and anything to do with renewables will be deemed to be heresy.

mcgoon said:

It’s all a lot of nonsense.

It’s a desperate attempt by the Turnbull government to divert attention cf. Paul Keating suggesting that the flag be changed. They don’t really mean it – they know who’s buttering their bread for them.

Anyway, once Tony’s back in charge, the fossil-fuel lobby will really be pulling some of the strings, and anything to do with renewables will be deemed to be heresy.

That’s your considered opinion is it?

https://www.solarquotes.com.au/blog/how-the-cost-of-powerwall-storage-doubled-in-11-months/

dunno how accurate, sibeen will tell, but Tesla powerwalls might not be all they are cracked up to be, sibeen knew. Going “off grid” is not simple or cheap.

AwesomeO said:

mcgoon said:

It’s all a lot of nonsense.

It’s a desperate attempt by the Turnbull government to divert attention cf. Paul Keating suggesting that the flag be changed. They don’t really mean it – they know who’s buttering their bread for them.

Anyway, once Tony’s back in charge, the fossil-fuel lobby will really be pulling some of the strings, and anything to do with renewables will be deemed to be heresy.

That’s your considered opinion is it?

About Tony and the renewables? Yes. Tony will be back – he’s intensely motivated by the desire for revenge, and by a sense of thwarted entitlement. He’ll be making sure that he keeps in the good books of the people who underwrite the L/NP, to facilitate pork-barreling to make his position impregnable against any further threats.

It doesn’t matter how you slice it variable renewable energy needs to be covered by carbon based energy plants, oil/gas/coal or nuclear.
Unreliable renewables might work ok if we get rid of all our heavy electrict hungry industries, once they are driven off shore we might have heaps of electricity.

ChrispenEvan said:

https://www.solarquotes.com.au/blog/how-the-cost-of-powerwall-storage-doubled-in-11-months/

dunno how accurate, sibeen will tell, but Tesla powerwalls might not be all they are cracked up to be, sibeen knew. Going “off grid” is not simple or cheap.

Gardener on minimal wage has managed it.

If anything, it’s getting easier. Only takes a couple of events plus a bit of pencil work to decide, bugger this, get some solar and some batteries in.

mcgoon said:

AwesomeO said:

mcgoon said:

It’s all a lot of nonsense.

It’s a desperate attempt by the Turnbull government to divert attention cf. Paul Keating suggesting that the flag be changed. They don’t really mean it – they know who’s buttering their bread for them.

Anyway, once Tony’s back in charge, the fossil-fuel lobby will really be pulling some of the strings, and anything to do with renewables will be deemed to be heresy.

That’s your considered opinion is it?

About Tony and the renewables? Yes. Tony will be back – he’s intensely motivated by the desire for revenge, and by a sense of thwarted entitlement. He’ll be making sure that he keeps in the good books of the people who underwrite the L/NP, to facilitate pork-barreling to make his position impregnable against any further threats.

thanks for the downer man. I just had a happy beer and was getting into a good space and you come along and kill it.

;-)

Peak Warming Man said:

It doesn’t matter how you slice it variable renewable energy needs to be covered by carbon based energy plants, oil/gas/coal or nuclear.
Unreliable renewables might work ok if we get rid of all our heavy electrict hungry industries, once they are driven off shore we might have heaps of electricity.

don’t think nuclear is carbon based, unless your thinking of the graphite moderator rods.

But, yes, we will still need some fossil fuel burning power station for the foreseeable future.

AwesomeO said:

ChrispenEvan said:

https://www.solarquotes.com.au/blog/how-the-cost-of-powerwall-storage-doubled-in-11-months/

dunno how accurate, sibeen will tell, but Tesla powerwalls might not be all they are cracked up to be, sibeen knew. Going “off grid” is not simple or cheap.

Gardener on minimal wage has managed it.

If anything, it’s getting easier. Only takes a couple of events plus a bit of pencil work to decide, bugger this, get some solar and some batteries in.

i thought we were talking wealthy people? their power demands will be higher and they will be less inclined to put the effort into keeping it going or doing without. I know people off grid and what you are prepared to do without for what you can afford is a big part.

i could run this place on solar and batteries, until i wanted to do some woodwork then i need a genny, and my 2000w honda won’t cut the mustard. plus, do i leave it running all the time i;m woodworking whether i need it or not, or start it each time i need it? hmmm, then you have the washing machine. need a fairly good inverter to run that.

Going off grid aint cheap.
It’s fine for a weekender like the Redoubt but forget about running an electric stove, a toaster or a kettle.
You are going to need a good backup generator, a big one if you want to run electric tools.
And it’s going to cost you thousands to replace your batteries every 5 to 6 years.
Solar systems do work and I’m happy with mine at the Redoubt but you got to know it’s limits.

ChrispenEvan said:

i could run this place on solar and batteries, until i wanted to do some woodwork then i need a genny, and my 2000w honda won’t cut the mustard. plus, do i leave it running all the time i;m woodworking whether i need it or not, or start it each time i need it? hmmm, then you have the washing machine. need a fairly good inverter to run that.

Yep.

ChrispenEvan said:

AwesomeO said:

ChrispenEvan said:

https://www.solarquotes.com.au/blog/how-the-cost-of-powerwall-storage-doubled-in-11-months/

dunno how accurate, sibeen will tell, but Tesla powerwalls might not be all they are cracked up to be, sibeen knew. Going “off grid” is not simple or cheap.

Gardener on minimal wage has managed it.

If anything, it’s getting easier. Only takes a couple of events plus a bit of pencil work to decide, bugger this, get some solar and some batteries in.

i thought we were talking wealthy people? their power demands will be higher and they will be less inclined to put the effort into keeping it going or doing without. I know people off grid and what you are prepared to do without for what you can afford is a big part.

Price of going off grid is coming down. A few days here and there without power, the first people going to solar and power walls will be the well off.

>>Price of going off grid is coming down

I bought my panels/batteries/inverters about 3 years ago and the price aint changed.
Maybe it’s come down against inflation but that aint much.

if i were to get PV with backup i would have two systems. PV and battery to power the house, no big power users. I would get a second PV system connected to the grid and get the rebate, and use that to run the heavy power users.

Peak Warming Man said:

>>Price of going off grid is coming down

I bought my panels/batteries/inverters about 3 years ago and the price aint changed.
Maybe it’s come down against inflation but that aint much.

batteries are usually the killer.

Peak Warming Man said:

>>Price of going off grid is coming down

I bought my panels/batteries/inverters about 3 years ago and the price aint changed.
Maybe it’s come down against inflation but that aint much.

But if you include how stuff is cheaper to run, LED lights and such. Power requirements are going down. Costs for solar might be about the same, dunno, no checked, but I have read the efficiencies are going up. Battery prices will be coming down soon.

ChrispenEvan said:

if i were to get PV with backup i would have two systems. PV and battery to power the house, no big power users. I would get a second PV system connected to the grid and get the rebate, and use that to run the heavy power users.

Ok ok, you can do what you want with your share but remember as the driver your cut wont be that high.
And stop talking about what you’re going to do with the money.

I wonder how this goes with today’s news that in Victoria due to the lack of electricity reserves (thanks Dan) because the govt shut down the power stations, the cost of power has gone up to over $200 per mw.

>>Battery prices will be coming down soon.

Dont take any notice of Sebeen, the prick has been saying that for 5 years.

https://www.facebook.com/Sustainability-Solutions-107425999363469/

I follow this guy who is doing his own thing. just gets the electrician in to do the final connects and checks. he is doing what i said, two systems.

Peak Warming Man said:

>>Battery prices will be coming down soon.

Dont take any notice of Sebeen, the prick has been saying that for 5 years.

Car makers are starting to get into hybrid power, factories will be ramping up, mines will be starting up.

JTQ said:

I wonder how this goes with today’s news that in Victoria due to the lack of electricity reserves (thanks Dan) because the govt shut down the power stations, the cost of power has gone up to over $200 per mw.

probably spot price. that varies all the time.

dv said:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/nov/22/renewables-will-drive-steep-decline-in-wholesale-electricity-price-in-australia-report?CMP=soc_567

Exclusive: Frontier Economics’ modelling commissioned by government says 6,000MW of renewable capacity entering market will reduce prices in 2018-20

Modelling commissioned by the Turnbull government as part of its efforts to back in the national energy guarantee

Ah, using consultants to pay for the result you want.

ChrispenEvan said:

JTQ said:

I wonder how this goes with today’s news that in Victoria due to the lack of electricity reserves (thanks Dan) because the govt shut down the power stations, the cost of power has gone up to over $200 per mw.

probably spot price. that varies all the time.

http://www.smh.com.au/victoria/power-plant-failures-push-states-energy-grid-close-to-the-edge-in-november-heat-20171122-gzqw3l.html?deviceType=text

ChrispenEvan said:

ChrispenEvan said:

JTQ said:

I wonder how this goes with today’s news that in Victoria due to the lack of electricity reserves (thanks Dan) because the govt shut down the power stations, the cost of power has gone up to over $200 per mw.

probably spot price. that varies all the time.

http://www.smh.com.au/victoria/power-plant-failures-push-states-energy-grid-close-to-the-edge-in-november-heat-20171122-gzqw3l.html?deviceType=text

That’s the one… cheers :)

JTQ said:

ChrispenEvan said:

ChrispenEvan said:

probably spot price. that varies all the time.

http://www.smh.com.au/victoria/power-plant-failures-push-states-energy-grid-close-to-the-edge-in-november-heat-20171122-gzqw3l.html?deviceType=text

That’s the one… cheers :)

yeah, spot price. plus it looks more like an operator failure to maintain plant than anything else. still, prop up these coal fired dinosaurs and carry on.

Cold meat and salad for tea and for dessert it will be a Sara Lee Bavarian Blackforest cheese cake thingy.

Peak Warming Man said:

Cold meat and salad for tea and for dessert it will be a Sara Lee Bavarian Blackforest cheese cake thingy.

Sounds healthier than mine. I just got a bowl, put in 2 slices of mud-cake-bread and filled the bowl to the brim with vanilla custard.

JTQ said:

Peak Warming Man said:

Cold meat and salad for tea and for dessert it will be a Sara Lee Bavarian Blackforest cheese cake thingy.

Sounds healthier than mine. I just got a bowl, put in 2 slices of mud-cake-bread and filled the bowl to the brim with vanilla custard.

Damn the torpedoes – full speed ahead!

I’m pretty sure we privatised power in Victoria. So the government didn’t shut down the power stations, they reached their end of life and free enterprise chose not to replace them.

buffy said:

I’m pretty sure we privatised power in Victoria. So the government didn’t shut down the power stations, they reached their end of life and free enterprise chose not to replace them.

To me this seems to be the general pattern for privatisation. Buy an asset, squeeze the last cent out of it, then close it down. The capital moves on to somewhere else that looks worth a quicker buck.

buffy said:

I’m pretty sure we privatised power in Victoria. So the government didn’t shut down the power stations, they reached their end of life and free enterprise chose not to replace them.

that’s how i saw it when i read the article. of course the govt could step in a subsidise the power market and keep them going, but then how would people have any right to complain about the renewable subsides then?

still i guess ones moral stance goes out the window when your aircon fails on a 40 degree day.

;-)

ChrispenEvan said:

buffy said:

I’m pretty sure we privatised power in Victoria. So the government didn’t shut down the power stations, they reached their end of life and free enterprise chose not to replace them.

that’s how i saw it when i read the article. of course the govt could step in a subsidise the power market and keep them going, but then how would people have any right to complain about the renewable subsides then?

still i guess ones moral stance goes out the window when your aircon fails on a 40 degree day.

;-)

Pfft….I went to school without aircon. We survived….

Mind you, I appreciate it now. I remember the nights where I had a wet bath towel lying over the top of me to keep cool. It’s possible.

buffy said:

ChrispenEvan said:

buffy said:

I’m pretty sure we privatised power in Victoria. So the government didn’t shut down the power stations, they reached their end of life and free enterprise chose not to replace them.

that’s how i saw it when i read the article. of course the govt could step in a subsidise the power market and keep them going, but then how would people have any right to complain about the renewable subsides then?

still i guess ones moral stance goes out the window when your aircon fails on a 40 degree day.

;-)

Pfft….I went to school without aircon. We survived….

Mind you, I appreciate it now. I remember the nights where I had a wet bath towel lying over the top of me to keep cool. It’s possible.

me too, but that was pommieland.

:-)

though i survived 6 years in darwin without an aircon at home.

ChrispenEvan said:

buffy said:

ChrispenEvan said:

that’s how i saw it when i read the article. of course the govt could step in a subsidise the power market and keep them going, but then how would people have any right to complain about the renewable subsides then?

still i guess ones moral stance goes out the window when your aircon fails on a 40 degree day.

;-)

Lived in barrack type accommodation in Port Moresby for 12 months without aircon.
We drank a lot.

Pfft….I went to school without aircon. We survived….

Mind you, I appreciate it now. I remember the nights where I had a wet bath towel lying over the top of me to keep cool. It’s possible.

me too, but that was pommieland.

:-)

though i survived 6 years in darwin without an aircon at home.

ChrispenEvan said:

buffy said:

ChrispenEvan said:

that’s how i saw it when i read the article. of course the govt could step in a subsidise the power market and keep them going, but then how would people have any right to complain about the renewable subsides then?

still i guess ones moral stance goes out the window when your aircon fails on a 40 degree day.

;-)

Pfft….I went to school without aircon. We survived….

Mind you, I appreciate it now. I remember the nights where I had a wet bath towel lying over the top of me to keep cool. It’s possible.

me too, but that was pommieland.

:-)

though i survived 6 years in darwin without an aircon at home.

Lived in barrack type accommodation in Port Moresby for 12 months without aircon.
We drank a lot.

Peak Warming Man said:

ChrispenEvan said:

buffy said:

Pfft….I went to school without aircon. We survived….

Mind you, I appreciate it now. I remember the nights where I had a wet bath towel lying over the top of me to keep cool. It’s possible.

me too, but that was pommieland.

:-)

though i survived 6 years in darwin without an aircon at home.

Lived in barrack type accommodation in Port Moresby for 12 months without aircon.
We drank a lot.

yep, you certainly go through the water. especially after a long evening on the piss.

Peak Warming Man said:

ChrispenEvan said:

buffy said:

Pfft….I went to school without aircon. We survived….

Mind you, I appreciate it now. I remember the nights where I had a wet bath towel lying over the top of me to keep cool. It’s possible.

me too, but that was pommieland.

:-)

though i survived 6 years in darwin without an aircon at home.

Lived in barrack type accommodation in Port Moresby for 12 months without aircon.
We drank a lot.

The older I get, the more I appreciate aircon. I’m finding it’s most useful as a buffer against a sudden temperature change, rather than as a panacea for continual high temperatures.

Except in shopping centres, where a year round uniform temperature is so nice.

ChrispenEvan said:

buffy said:

ChrispenEvan said:

that’s how i saw it when i read the article. of course the govt could step in a subsidise the power market and keep them going, but then how would people have any right to complain about the renewable subsides then?

still i guess ones moral stance goes out the window when your aircon fails on a 40 degree day.

;-)

Pfft….I went to school without aircon. We survived….

Mind you, I appreciate it now. I remember the nights where I had a wet bath towel lying over the top of me to keep cool. It’s possible.

me too, but that was pommieland.

:-)

though i survived 6 years in darwin without an aircon at home.

I remember when aircons first started appearing. Wheel around ones sloshing water everywhere. Before that we used to go to the swimming pool and take watermelon.

Woodie said:

dv said:

The work by Frontier Economics, obtained by Guardian Australia, says a steep decline in wholesale electricity prices forecast between 2018 and 2022 is due to the entry of 6,000MW of renewable capacity which has already been incentivised by the existing renewable energy target.

AAAAARGGHHH…. That word…… “incentivised”

It’s time to accept it and move on, Woodie … you’ve been fighting the good fight a long time.