https://theconversation.com/the-flu-vaccine-is-being-oversold-its-not-that-effective-97688

Divine Angel said:

https://theconversation.com/the-flu-vaccine-is-being-oversold-its-not-that-effective-97688

Reading the above. Doesn’t look at all oversold. The flu vaccine cuts the incidence of flu in the individuals that take the flu shot to 40%.

In absolute terms it’s not less optimistic but more optimistic. First, the individuals that get a flu shot tend to be those more at risk. Either more at risk because they come into contact with more people or more at risk because they get sicker with the flu. Suppose, for the sake of argument that these people are at twice as much risk as the general population, then that 40% would actually represent an improvement by a factor of five.

Then there’s the flow on effect. People who get the flu can only catch it from people who have the flu. This is called a positive feedback loop. It means that even those people who don’t have flu shots benefit from the people who do have flu shots. In practical terms it means that suppose in a population as above that 1% of those with flu shots get the flu and 2% of those without flu shots get the flu. Then, because of the positive feedback loop, if nobody in the population had flu shots then the overall incidence of flu would have to be greater than 2%. Possibly 3% or 5% or 10% or even higher. In a nutshell, the more people who have the flu vaccine the better it works on a per person basis.

The 1 in 100 thing is when the vaccine doesn’t match the circulating strains very well, which happens. But, when it does match closely or bang on, it drops to 1 in 30. Those same Cochrane reviews mention that. Wonder why the author omitted that information…

Is also why meta analysis of flu vaccine isn’t great IMO – it includes vaccines that were poorly matched as well as ones that were matched closely – I guess over all it gives a guide, but as it’s done yearly I don’t think it’s worthwhile meta analysing unless you can account for the matching of the vaccine to circulating strains. There was also an issue last year with how the vaccine was made which reduced its effectiveness.

Although, I could just be a big pharma stooge under mind control after having my flu vaccination this year.

For comparison, BP medication, to prevent 1 death from stroke needs 125 hypertensive people to be treated.

Now now poik…we know you don’t like meta-analyses…

And how dare you be modern enough to start looking at number needed to treat…

:)

buffy said:

Now now poik…we know you don’t like meta-analyses…

And how dare you be modern enough to start looking at number needed to treat…

:)

heh, you’ve noticed I’m not a fan?

I quite like NNT and/or NNH.

I too like number needed to treat. It made instant sense to me when it was explained for the first time.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guillain%E2%80%93Barr%C3%A9_syndrome

Some cases may be triggered by the influenza virus and potentially influenza vaccine. An increased incidence of Guillain–Barré syndrome followed influenza immunization that followed the 1976 swine flu outbreak (H1N1 A/NJ/76); 8.8 cases per million recipients developed the complication. Since then, close monitoring of cases attributable to vaccination has demonstrated that influenza itself can induce GBS. Small increases in incidence have been observed in subsequent vaccination campaigns, but not to the same extent. The 2009 flu pandemic vaccine (against pandemic swine flu virus H1N1/PDM09) did not cause a significant increase in cases. It is considered that the benefits of vaccination in preventing influenza outweigh the small risks of GBS after vaccination. Even those who have previously experienced Guillain–Barré syndrome are considered safe to receive the vaccine in the future. Other vaccines, such as those against poliomyelitis, tetanus or measles, have not been associated with a risk of GBS

Mum spent a few years going in and out of hospitals and nursing homes before she died. My brother and sister were both working at suburban primary school. They both had histories of bronchial pneumonia.

So each year I would get a flu shot because I didn’t want to be the one that killed mum. Each year everyone got sick and I would fly to Sydney and everyone would be miserable and falling apart.

One year I contracted something awful that wasn’t covered by my flu shot. I think I gave it to everyone on the plane going home to my own bed.

I don’t get the flu vaccine or the flu anymore.

All three of us got the flu last year, and we gave it to mum. Mini Me copped a second dose, which presented itself with no symptoms other than a sudden high temp which resulted in seizures. Influenza A was confirmed at the hospital, three months after the first Influenza A as confirmed by the GP.

So, flu vax for all of us this year. Mum is getting to age where seemingly innocuous viruses can cause decent damage.

vaccination doesn’t stop those immunized from carrying the flu virus.

it might reduce the frequency it occurs if enough are vaccinated, largely by reducing severity and period of infection.

offset somewhat by those immunized silent carriers not hiding away, and not sending signals of obvious contagion.

don’t let those apparently healthy immunized bastards breathe on you.