captain_spalding said:

dv said:

Tau.Neutrino said:

Will the D’s win?

I think there’s a better than 95% chance they will control the House, and maybe an 80% they’ll control the Senate.

I urge caution.

Robert Menzies advised Harold Holt that ‘one can never under-estimate the intelligence of the Australian voter’.

Looking at what happened in the US in 2024, i would say that that applies even more so to the American voter.

I think what people have to mentally parse here is the idea that a thing that happens eight out of ten times doesn’t happen two out of ten times. That is something with a 20% chance of occurring isn’t all the uncommon.

The inherent issue here is the nature of the polling error and the fact that all the key states are sitting within this error margin.