captain_spalding said:

Cymek said:

captain_spalding said:

I urge caution.

Robert Menzies advised Harold Holt that ‘one can never under-estimate the intelligence of the Australian voter’.

Looking at what happened in the US in 2024, i would say that that applies even more so to the American voter.

This is all assuming Trump goes quietly into the night when his times up

Assuming also that even the Republican Party is fed up to the back teeth with him after another two years of his shit, these are things that might happen:

Legal and political mechanisms for removal include:

25th Amendment: The incoming Vice President and Cabinet could declare him unable to discharge duties, or Congress could force the issue with a two-thirds vote.

Line of Succession: If the presidency is deemed vacant due to incapacity or removal, the next official in the line of succession (likely the Speaker of the House) would assume power.

Physical Removal: If all legal channels fail, the Secret Service or military would be obligated to remove him from the White House, as he would technically become a trespasser.

Speculative scenarios for circumvention involve:

Loyalist Proxy: Endorsing a loyal family member or ally as the 2028 nominee who then resigns to allow Trump to ascend via succession.

Vice-Presidential Run: Some legal scholars note the 22nd Amendment’s text does not explicitly ban a two-term president from running for Vice President, though this remains highly controversial and would likely trigger immediate litigation.

Martial Law/Coup: A more extreme scenario involves refusing to accept electoral defeat and imposing martial law, which political scientists warn would likely result in severe international sanctions, economic collapse, and potential civil unrest or war.

I think the most likely scenario is that Trump spends the rest of his term trying to fill his shopping trolley to the very top before exiting stage left in two years time and pardoning himself and everyone around him on the way out.

There is of course the chance the Trump dies during this time, but outside of this he won’t be removed (it’s unlikely the Dems will have the numbers to do this and in any case I think it’s bad politics), he won’t run again, there won’t be a national uprising, there won’t be a civil war and there won’t be a military coup.