How did events meet my expections?

dv said:

Governorships are also important for federal politics since state governments determine congressional boundaries, and also affect ballot access and the conduct of federal elections. They are of course also important in their own right as state governments wield tremendous power in health and education etc.

Of the 50 governorships, 36 are up for election. Currently 26 are R, 24 are D. 18 of each are up for election.

*Solid Republican
Alabama
Arkansas
Idaho
Oklahoma
South Dakota
Tennessee
Wyoming

And so it proved.

*Very likely Republican
Kansas (gain for R)
New Hampshire
South Carolina

Kansas going for the Dem governor was unexpected.

*Republic leads within polling margin
Florida
Nebraska
Texas
Vermont

The Dems picked up Texas in a mild surprise.

*Neck and Neck
Georgia (currently R held)
Nevada (currently R held)

Both of these went to the Dems.

All the states that I had Dems as leading, likely or solid were indeed won by Dems.

Democrats might reasonably hope to pick up between 4 and 6 governorships, with some chance of 10.

In the end, they picked up 6, ending with the governorships of 30 states.