dv said:

And in the senate races? I’m assuming that Mississippi and Alaska end up in Dem hands, as seem extremely likely at this point.

dv said:

5 days out from the midterms, might as well have a squiz at how the Senate races are playing in the polls.

The House is important, but it seems certain the Dems will get a working majority, and the exact extent doesn’t matter that much. In the Senate, the numbers will matter for at least two reasons. Firstly they want a large enough majority to overcome internal resistance. At 52-48, the D leadership would struggle on several issues to enact their will because of conservative Democratic senators. At 54-46 they’ll have more options. Secondly, these senators will be around for six years: If they get to 54-46, they could have a view to being at 60-40 in 2028, which is a filibuster-proof majority.

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At present the senate balance is 53R-47D but that 47 includes senators King and Sanders, independents who caucus with the Democrats. There are opportunities for more Dem-friendly independents to win office this year.

35 Senate seats are up for election: 33 “regular” election and 2 “special” elections for to elect replacements. Of this 35, 22 are held by Republicans, 13 by Democrats. Of the senate spots not up for election this year, 31 are held by Reps, 34 are held by Dems and friends.

*Solid Republican (almost certain R victory)
Alabama
Arkansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Oklahoma
Tennessee
West Virginia
Wyoming

And so it proved.

*Very likely Republican Florida: Moody ® ahead by 7%, Nixon (D) a long shot Idaho: independent Todd Achilles has a long shot Mississippi: Colom (D) is 3% behind in latest poll Montana: independent Bodnar has a long shot South Dakota: independent Brian Bengs has a long shot

Well, Mississippi was the nice surprise.

*Republican leading but within polling margin
South Carolina: Darline Graham ® leads Annie Andrews by 1.5% but the margin is closing

And indeed Annie Andrews won handsomely.

*Neck and Neck
Iowa: Turek (D) ahead by less than 1%
Kansas: Hamilton (D) ahead by less than 1%
Nebraska: independent Dan Osborn ahead by less than 1%

Happy news for Kansas and Iowa. Not Dan Osborn’s year.

All the states where I had Dems leading, likely or solid were won by Dems.

The likely range then is 56D* – 44R to 47D*- 53R. The most likely would be somethng like 53D* – 47R.

The Democrats reached the top of my likely range, could not reasonably have hoped for more.

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A good summary. Not too wonky nor employing confusing terms like “gubernatorial”.